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FAS v Alianza

FAS

2–1Full time

Alianza

Primera Division · FRI 9 OCT

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FAS win42%

Draw29%

Alianza win29%

Published before kick-off · 8 Oct 23:36

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 02:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Published on launch night, before our public record began. Shown as it was published, and not counted in the record.

Our number · fas winPublished 8 Oct 23:36

42% The market55%

Us42%

~~Market~~55%

We make FAS a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FAS win	42%	55%	−13
Draw	29%	26%	+3
Alianza win	29%	19%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	49%	49%	0
Both teams to score	54%	50%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	72%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
FAS or draw	71%	81%	−10
FAS clean sheet	31%	–	–
Alianza clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 8.7 7.2 5.0 1 9.2 13.6 7.2 2.8 2 7.6 8.8 5.2 2.0 3 3.7 4.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FAS down, Alianza across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,415 Primera Division matches up to 8 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

24 previous meetings, 2.38 goals a meeting; 8 of 24 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FAS at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Alianza away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for FAS, 1.17 for Alianza. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

24 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 24

~~Both scored~~10 of 24

~~Last meetings~~ALI 0–2 FAS · FAS 3–1 ALI · FAS 2–2 ALI · ALI 2–0 FAS

Form · last six in Primera Division

FAS

WWDWWD3–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 1–1

ALIANZA

DWDDWD2–2 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Isidro Metapán	13	+8	26
2	Firpo	13	+14	25
3	FAS	12	+11	24
4	Inter	14	+7	22
5	Águila	14	+4	20
6	Alianza	12	+2	18
7	Municipal Limeño	14	0	17
8	Platense	14	−4	16
9	Inca Aruba	14	−11	16
10	Atletico Balboa	14	−7	13
11	Cacahuatique	14	−10	11
12	Fuerte San Francisco	14	−14	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

Head to head

Form · last six in Primera Division

The table