Cacahuatique v Inca Aruba prediction · Primera Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CacahuatiqueDrawInca Aruba

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cacahuatique 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cacahuatique are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cacahuatique 45%, draw 29%, Inca Aruba 26%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Cacahuatique v Inca ArubaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Cacahuatique win45%

Draw29%

Inca Aruba win26%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 21:00

RoundApertura · matchday 18

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cacahuatique

Inca Aruba

6Days since last match7

Last match: 25 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)

Last match: 24 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Inca Aruba	17	−18	16
11	Cacahuatique	16	−11	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cacahuatique winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Cacahuatique a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cacahuatique v Inca Aruba~~1.42 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 27 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 16~~11 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cacahuatique win	45%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Inca Aruba win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Cacahuatique or draw	74%	–	–
Cacahuatique clean sheet	36%	–	–
Inca Aruba clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 10.2 7.5 4.5 1 11.1 13.8 6.3 2.2 2 8.8 8.8 4.5 3 4.2 4.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cacahuatique down, Inca Aruba across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,432 Primera Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cacahuatique at home: 0.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Inca Aruba away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Cacahuatique, 1.02 for Inca Aruba. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~INC 1–1 CAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 27 Sept

CACAHUATIQUE

LWLLDD0–2 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–3

INCA ARUBA

DWDLLL1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Firpo	15	+17	31
2	FAS	17	+10	31
3	Isidro Metapán	17	+5	30
4	Águila	17	+9	27
5	Inter	17	+8	26
6	Alianza	16	+2	23
7	Platense	16	0	22
8	Municipal Limeño	16	0	20
9	Inca Aruba	17	−18	16
10	Atletico Balboa	16	−8	14
11	Cacahuatique	16	−11	12
12	Fuerte San Francisco	16	−14	12