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Cacahuatique v Alianza
CacahuatiqueAlianzaPrimera Division · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Alianza win at 48%.
- 3′Little has changed for our model: Alianza 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 24–29–48
- 3′KICK-OFF Cacahuatique v Alianza
- 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Alianza win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Cacahuatique 0–0 Alianza
- 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Alianza win 37%)
- 46′SECOND HALF Cacahuatique 0–0 Alianza
- 48′We said Alianza at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 21–43–36
- 53′We said Alianza at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 20–46–34
- 55′We said Alianza at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 20–47–33
- 57′Goalless on 57′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 19–49–32
- 62′We said Alianza at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 18–53–29
- 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Alianza win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
- 69′We said Alianza at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 15–61–24
- 75′We said Alianza at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 12–69–19
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Alianza win: 48% at kick-off, 16% now
- 80′We said Alianza at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 9–77–14
- 84′We said Alianza at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 6–85–9
- 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Alianza win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
- 90′0–0 at the end. Our 48% on Alianza misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
- 91′We said Alianza at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
- FTFULL TIME Cacahuatique 0–0 Alianza
- FTCacahuatique 0–0 Alianza · Alianza win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassAlianza are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Cacahuatique 24%, draw 28%, Alianza 48%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Cacahuatique win24%Alianza win48%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 22:00
RoundApertura · matchday 16
Match timeline
All events
CacahuatiqueMINAlianzaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Cacahuatique
Alianza
Last match: 10 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)
Last match: 12 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alianza | 14 | +1 | 19 |
| 12 | Cacahuatique | 15 | −11 | 11 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Alianza a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.5.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cacahuatique win | 24% | 27% | −3 |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | −1 |
| Alianza win | 48% | 45% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 27% | −2 |
| Cacahuatique or draw | 52% | 55% | −3 |
| Cacahuatique clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
| Alianza clean sheet | 37% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 19 Sept
CACAHUATIQUE
ALIANZA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Firpo | 15 | +17 | 31 |
| 2 |  FAS | 14 | +13 | 30 |
| 3 |  Isidro Metapán | 14 | +5 | 26 |
| 4 |  Águila | 15 | +7 | 23 |
| 5 |  Inter | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 6 |  Municipal Limeño | 16 | 0 | 20 |
| 7 | Alianza | 14 | +1 | 19 |
| 8 |  Platense | 15 | −1 | 19 |
| 9 |  Inca Aruba | 16 | −16 | 16 |
| 10 |  Atletico Balboa | 15 | −8 | 13 |
| 11 |  Fuerte San Francisco | 15 | −13 | 12 |
| 12 | Cacahuatique | 15 | −11 | 11 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.