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Model 1.1

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Atletico Balboa v FAS

Atletico Balboa
0–1Full time
FAS

Primera Division · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 00:30
Atletico Balboa 0–1 FAS FAS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FAS win55%
The market said57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.304
The market’s Brier score0.278

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 5 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FAS win at 55%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: FAS was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 21–23–56
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Atletico Balboa v FAS
  4. 2′Much as we predicted: FAS was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 21–23–56
  5. 3′Much as we predicted: FAS was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 21–24–56
  6. 45′SECOND HALF Atletico Balboa 0–0 FAS
  7. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Atletico Balboa 0–1 FAS
  8. 73′⚽ GOAL · 74' Atletico Balboa 0–1 FAS
  9. FTFULL TIME Atletico Balboa 0–1 FAS
  10. FTAtletico Balboa 0–1 FAS · FAS win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Atletico Balboa win20%
Draw25%
FAS win55%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 22:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atletico Balboa

FAS

8Days since last match2
3Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
1FAS13+1227
10Atletico Balboa14−713

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fas winPublished 11 Oct 17:22
55% The market57%
Us55%
Market57%

We make FAS a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 9 OCT 06:1811 OCT 17:26
Our probability · fas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 57% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Atletico Balboa win20%19%+1
Draw25%24%+1
FAS win55%57%−2
Over 2.5 goals53%56%−3
Both teams to score54%55%−1
Over 1.5 goals78%77%+1
Over 3.5 goals31%36%−5
Atletico Balboa or draw45%43%+2
Atletico Balboa clean sheet17%––
FAS clean sheet37%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%
0123450 7.4 9.8 9.8 6.0 2.7 1 4.9 12.0 9.7 5.8 2.7 2 3.1 5.4 4.8 2.9 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Balboa down, FAS across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsFAS 1–1 ATL

Form · last six in Primera Division

ATLETICO BALBOA

LWLDLL0–1 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–3

FAS

WDWWDW1–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1FAS13+1227
2Isidro Metapán13+826
3Firpo13+1425
4Inter14+722
5Águila14+420
6Platense15−119
7Alianza13+118
8Municipal Limeño14017
9Inca Aruba15−1416
10Atletico Balboa14−713
11Fuerte San Francisco15−1312
12Cacahuatique15−1111

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.