Atletico Balboa v Águila prediction · Primera Division

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 00:30

Atletico Balboa 2–2 Águila ÁGUILA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Águila win~~50%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.821

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.797

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Águila win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Águila was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 22–28–50
1′KICK-OFF Atletico Balboa v Águila
20′A goal for Águila on 20′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–15–78
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Atletico Balboa 0–1 Águila
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Águila win: 50% at kick-off, 78% now
21′We published Águila at 50%. Our model now makes it 78%. 0–1 · 7–15–78
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 6–16–78
45′HALF-TIME Atletico Balboa 0–1 Águila
45′SECOND HALF Atletico Balboa 0–1 Águila
46′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 21–41–39
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Águila win: 50% at kick-off, 39% now
47′We published Águila at 50%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Águila win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
67′We published Águila at 50%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
68′We published Águila at 50%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Atletico Balboa 0–2 Águila
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Águila win: 50% at kick-off, 98% now
69′Águila score on 69′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–98 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
80′We published Águila at 50%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Águila win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
83′We published Águila at 50%. Our model now makes it 93%. 1–2 · 0–6–93 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
83′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–6–93 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Atletico Balboa 1–2 Águila
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Águila win: 50% at kick-off, 93% now
84′Atletico Balboa find the net on 83′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
104′A goal for Atletico Balboa on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 1–97–2
104′⚽ GOAL · 90+14' Atletico Balboa 2–2 Águila
104′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+14' Águila win: 50% at kick-off, 2% now
104′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+14' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Águila win 2%)
FTFULL TIME Atletico Balboa 2–2 Águila
FTAtletico Balboa 2–2 Águila · Águila win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Águila are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Balboa 22%, draw 28%, Águila 50%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Balboa v ÁguilaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Balboa win22%

Draw28%

Águila win50%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 22:00

RoundApertura · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico Balboa

Águila

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Águila	15	+7	23
10	Atletico Balboa	15	−8	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · águila winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market47%

Us50%

~~Market~~47%

We make Águila a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico Balboa v Águila~~0.98 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 23~~10 v 4

~~The market · Águila win~~47% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Águila win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Balboa win	22%	25%	−3
Draw	28%	28%	0
Águila win	50%	47%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	47%	51%	−4
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	74%	72%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	32%	−6
Atletico Balboa or draw	50%	53%	−3
Atletico Balboa clean sheet	21%	–	–
Águila clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.2 10.9 9.6 5.1 2.0 1 6.3 13.1 9.3 4.9 2 3.7 5.8 4.6 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Balboa down, Águila across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,425 Primera Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.5% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 6.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Balboa at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Águila away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Atletico Balboa, 1.58 for Águila. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~AGU 2–4 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 12 Sept

ATLETICO BALBOA

WLDLLL3–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 0–1

ÁGUILA

WWLWWW3–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Firpo	15	+17	31
2	FAS	14	+13	30
3	Isidro Metapán	15	+6	29
4	Águila	15	+7	23
5	Inter	16	+6	23
6	Alianza	15	+1	20
7	Municipal Limeño	16	0	20
8	Platense	15	−1	19
9	Inca Aruba	16	−16	16
10	Atletico Balboa	15	−8	13
11	Cacahuatique	16	−11	12
12	Fuerte San Francisco	16	−14	12