Alianza v Isidro Metapán prediction · Primera Division

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 00:34

Alianza 1–0 Isidro Metapán ALIANZA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alianza win~~47%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.424

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.644

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alianza win at 47%.
1′KICK-OFF Alianza v Isidro Metapán
2′Little has changed for our model: Alianza 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–30–24
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Alianza win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
44′Alianza find the net on 44′. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–17–5
44′We said Alianza at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–5
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Alianza 1–0 Isidro Metapán
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Alianza win: 47% at kick-off, 79% now
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 79–17–5
45′HALF-TIME Alianza 1–0 Isidro Metapán
45′SECOND HALF Alianza 1–0 Isidro Metapán
47′Alianza ahead on 43′ through L. Menjivar. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–17–4
50′We said Alianza at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
68′We said Alianza at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Alianza win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
78′We said Alianza at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
85′We said Alianza at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Alianza win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
90′1–0 at the end. Our 47% on Alianza comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Alianza 1–0 Isidro Metapán
FTAlianza 1–0 Isidro Metapán · Alianza win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alianza are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alianza 47%, draw 29%, Isidro Metapán 24%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Alianza v Isidro MetapánBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Alianza win47%

Draw29%

Isidro Metapán win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 22:00

RoundApertura · matchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alianza

Isidro Metapán

3Days since last match2

Last match: 21 Oct · CONCACAF Central American Cup

Last match: 22 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Isidro Metapán	16	+6	30
7	Alianza	15	+1	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alianza winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market35%

Us47%

~~Market~~35%

We make Alianza a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alianza v Isidro Metapán~~1.45 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 30~~7 v 3

~~The market · Alianza win~~35% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alianza win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alianza win	47%	35%	+12
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Isidro Metapán win	24%	35%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	43%	45%	−2
Both teams to score	48%	51%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	71%	69%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	25%	−3
Alianza or draw	76%	65%	+11
Alianza clean sheet	39%	–	–
Isidro Metapán clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 10.6 7.3 4.2 1 11.6 13.8 6.0 2 9.4 8.9 4.3 3 4.6 4.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alianza down, Isidro Metapán across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,429 Primera Division matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alianza at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Isidro Metapán away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Alianza, 0.96 for Isidro Metapán. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ISI 2–0 ALI · ISI 1–1 ALI · ALI 3–1 ISI · ISI 0–0 ALI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 19 Sept

ALIANZA

DWDLDD1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–0

ISIDRO METAPÁN

DWWLWD0–0 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Firpo	15	+17	31
2	FAS	16	+12	31
3	Isidro Metapán	16	+6	30
4	Inter	17	+8	26
5	Águila	16	+7	24
6	Platense	16	0	22
7	Alianza	15	+1	20
8	Municipal Limeño	16	0	20
9	Inca Aruba	17	−18	16
10	Atletico Balboa	16	−8	14
11	Cacahuatique	16	−11	12
12	Fuerte San Francisco	16	−14	12