Alianza v Inter prediction · Primera Division

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 03:00

Alianza 2–2 Inter ALIANZA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alianza win~~52%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.841

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.752

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alianza win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Alianza was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–21
1′KICK-OFF Alianza v Inter
4′Much as we predicted: Alianza was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–26–21
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Alianza 1–0 Inter
21′8′ and it is 1–0: H. Osorio on the scoresheet for Alianza. 1–0 · 79–15–6
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Alianza win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Alianza win: 52% at kick-off, 53% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Alianza win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Alianza win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Alianza win: 52% at kick-off, 53% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Alianza win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Alianza win: 52% at kick-off, 53% now
25′8′ and it is 1–0: H. Osorio on the scoresheet for Alianza. 1–0 · 79–15–6
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Alianza win: 52% at kick-off, 53% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Alianza win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
29′We published Alianza at 52%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–5
30′We published Alianza at 52%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–5
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
35′We published Alianza at 52%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Alianza win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Alianza win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
45′HALF-TIME Alianza 1–0 Inter
46′SECOND HALF Alianza 1–0 Inter
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Alianza 2–0 Inter
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Alianza 2–1 Inter
83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Inter
90′⚽ GOAL · 98' Alianza 2–2 Inter
FTFULL TIME Alianza 2–2 Inter
FTAlianza 2–2 Inter · Alianza win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Alianza win52%

Draw27%

Inter win20%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 00:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Alianza

Inter

2Days since last match7

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Inter	14	+7	22
7	Alianza	13	+1	18

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

European football: Freiburg move top of Bundesliga while Isco keeps Betis flying highThe Guardian · 3 hours ago · SC Freiburg, Inter, Como

Serie A | Lazio 3-1 Monza: Special Nuno Tavares strike keeps Aquile on topFootball Italia · 8 hours ago · Inter Fabregas: ‘Inter inspired Como on how to hurt Roma’Football Italia · 9 hours ago · Inter, Como Today’s Papers – Inter’s sprint, Fabregas taunts Italy, Cardinale like TrumpFootball Italia · 15 hours ago · Inter

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alianza winPublished 12 Oct 00:30

52% The market39%

Us52%

~~Market~~39%

We make Alianza a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · alianza win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 52% now. The market has gone from 36% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alianza win	52%	39%	+13
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Inter win	20%	31%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	46%	46%	0
Both teams to score	49%	52%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	70%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	27%	−2
Alianza or draw	80%	69%	+11
Alianza clean sheet	40%	–	–
Inter clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.4 6.1 3.4 1 11.5 12.9 5.4 2 10.3 9.3 4.3 3 5.6 5.0 2.3 4 2.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alianza down, Inter across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,419 Primera Division matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.6% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.80 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alianza at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Inter away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Alianza, 0.92 for Inter. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~INT 2–0 ALI · INT 2–0 ALI · ALI 1–3 INT · INT 0–1 ALI

Form · last six in Primera Division

ALIANZA

WDDWDL3–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

INTER

WDDDLD2–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Firpo	14	+15	28
2	FAS	13	+12	27
3	Isidro Metapán	13	+8	26
4	Inter	14	+7	22
5	Águila	14	+4	20
6	Platense	15	−1	19
7	Alianza	13	+1	18
8	Municipal Limeño	15	−1	17
9	Inca Aruba	15	−14	16
10	Atletico Balboa	14	−7	13
11	Fuerte San Francisco	15	−13	12
12	Cacahuatique	15	−11	11