Águila v Isidro Metapán prediction · Primera Division

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 00:30

Águila 3–0 Isidro Metapán ÁGUILA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Águila win~~45%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.453

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.511

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Águila win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Águila 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–26
1′KICK-OFF Águila v Isidro Metapán
2′Little has changed for our model: Águila 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–26
43′⚽ GOAL · 44' Águila 0–0 Isidro Metapán
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Águila 1–0 Isidro Metapán
45′SECOND HALF Águila 1–0 Isidro Metapán
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Águila 1–0 Isidro Metapán
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Águila 2–0 Isidro Metapán
96′⚽ GOAL · 97' Águila 2–0 Isidro Metapán
96′⚽ GOAL · 96' Águila 3–0 Isidro Metapán
FTFULL TIME Águila 3–0 Isidro Metapán
FTÁguila 3–0 Isidro Metapán · Águila win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Águila win45%

Draw30%

Isidro Metapán win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 22:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Águila

Isidro Metapán

8Days since last match8

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Isidro Metapán	13	+8	26
5	Águila	14	+4	20

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · águila winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

45% The market42%

Us45%

~~Market~~42%

We make Águila a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · águila win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Águila win	45%	42%	+3
Draw	30%	29%	0
Isidro Metapán win	25%	29%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	43%	44%	−2
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	70%	69%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	25%	−3
Águila or draw	75%	71%	+4
Águila clean sheet	38%	–	–
Isidro Metapán clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 10.7 7.7 4.5 1 11.5 13.9 6.2 2.1 2 9.0 8.8 4.3 3 4.2 4.1 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Águila down, Isidro Metapán across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,418 Primera Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

25 previous meetings, 2.72 goals a meeting; 15 of 25 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Águila at home: 2.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Isidro Metapán away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Águila, 0.99 for Isidro Metapán. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

25 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.72

~~Over 2.5~~15 of 25

~~Both scored~~15 of 25

~~Last meetings~~ISI 2–1 AGU · AGU 1–1 ISI · ISI 4–2 AGU · ISI 0–2 AGU

Form · last six in Primera Division

ÁGUILA

DWWLWW0–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 4–1

ISIDRO METAPÁN

LWWDWW0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FAS	13	+12	27
2	Isidro Metapán	13	+8	26
3	Firpo	13	+14	25
4	Inter	14	+7	22
5	Águila	14	+4	20
6	Platense	15	−1	19
7	Alianza	13	+1	18
8	Municipal Limeño	14	0	17
9	Inca Aruba	15	−14	16
10	Atletico Balboa	14	−7	13
11	Fuerte San Francisco	15	−13	12
12	Cacahuatique	15	−11	11