Águila v FAS prediction · Primera Division

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 00:34

Águila 3–1 FAS ÁGUILA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Águila win~~36%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.617

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.566

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Águila win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Águila was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–29–35
1′KICK-OFF Águila v FAS
20′FAS find the net on 19′. 0–0 · 34–32–33
21′We said Águila at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–21–66
21′⚽ GOAL · 19' Águila 0–1 FAS
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Águila win: 36% at kick-off, 13% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' FAS win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Águila win 34%)
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 11–21–67
42′We said Águila at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
45′HALF-TIME Águila 1–1 FAS
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Águila win: 36% at kick-off, 30% now
45′SECOND HALF Águila 1–1 FAS
47′A goal for Águila on 45′. 0–1 · 8–21–71
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Águila 1–1 FAS
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Águila win: 36% at kick-off, 29% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was FAS win 71%)
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Águila win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
62′We said Águila at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
72′We said Águila at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–64–18
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Águila win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Águila win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
90′Águila find the net on 90′. 1–1 · 4–92–4
90′We said Águila at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
92′We published Águila at 36%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–1 · 97–3–0
92′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 97–3–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90' Águila 2–1 FAS
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Águila win: 36% at kick-off, 97% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Águila win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 93%)
93′A goal for Águila on 90′. 2–1 · 98–2–0
93′We published Águila at 36%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Águila 3–1 FAS
94′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Águila 3–1 FAS
FTÁguila 3–1 FAS · Águila win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Águila just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Águila 36%, draw 29%, FAS 35%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Águila v FASBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Águila win36%

Draw29%

FAS win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 22:00

RoundApertura · matchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Águila

FAS

6Days since last match2

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)

Last match: 22 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	FAS	16	+12	31
5	Águila	16	+7	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · águila winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 19 Oct 03:08 · locked at kick-off

36% The market39%

Us36%

~~Market~~39%

We make Águila a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Águila v FAS~~1.31 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 20 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 31~~5 v 2

~~The market · Águila win~~39% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Águila win The market, margin stripped

Published at 35%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Águila win	36%	39%	−3
Draw	29%	29%	0
FAS win	35%	33%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	48%	49%	−1
Both teams to score	54%	54%	0
Over 1.5 goals	75%	72%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	27%	28%	−1
Águila or draw	65%	67%	−2
Águila clean sheet	28%	–	–
FAS clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 8.9 8.2 6.2 2.7 1 8.3 13.8 8.0 3.5 2 6.4 8.1 5.2 2.3 3 2.8 3.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Águila down, FAS across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,429 Primera Division matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Águila at home: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). FAS away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Águila, 1.29 for FAS. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FAS 1–0 AGU · AGU 0–3 FAS · AGU 3–0 FAS · FAS 3–0 AGU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 20 Sept

ÁGUILA

WLWWWD1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 2–2

FAS

WDWWLD3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Firpo	15	+17	31
2	FAS	16	+12	31
3	Isidro Metapán	16	+6	30
4	Inter	17	+8	26
5	Águila	16	+7	24
6	Platense	16	0	22
7	Alianza	15	+1	20
8	Municipal Limeño	16	0	20
9	Inca Aruba	17	−18	16
10	Atletico Balboa	16	−8	14
11	Cacahuatique	16	−11	12
12	Fuerte San Francisco	16	−14	12