Tersana v Mega Sport prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 16:02

Tersana 4–0 Mega Sport TERSANA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tersana win~~44%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.471

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.350

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tersana win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Tersana v Mega Sport
2′Much as we predicted: Tersana was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–30–25
12′Tersana find the net on 12′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Tersana 1–0 Mega Sport
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Tersana win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
13′We published Tersana at 44%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
17′A goal for Tersana on 17′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Tersana 2–0 Mega Sport
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Tersana win: 44% at kick-off, 93% now
18′We published Tersana at 44%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Tersana win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
30′We published Tersana at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
45′HALF-TIME Tersana 2–0 Mega Sport
46′SECOND HALF Tersana 2–0 Mega Sport
69′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
69′Tersana score on 69′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Tersana 3–0 Mega Sport
70′We published Tersana at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
71′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
77′Tersana find the net on 77′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Tersana 4–0 Mega Sport
78′4 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Tersana 4–0 Mega Sport
FTTersana 4–0 Mega Sport · Tersana win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tersana are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tersana 44%, draw 33%, Mega Sport 23%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Tersana v Mega SportBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Tersana win44%

Draw33%

Mega Sport win23%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tersana

Mega Sport

8Days since last match8

Last match: 8 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Tersana	8	+1	13
20	Mega Sport	8	−7	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tersana winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

44% The market52%

Us44%

~~Market~~52%

We make Tersana a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tersana v Mega Sport~~1.26 – 0.84

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 13 v 2~~9 v 20

~~The market · Tersana win~~52% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tersana win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tersana win	44%	52%	−8
Draw	33%	28%	+5
Mega Sport win	23%	20%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	35%	37%	−2
Both teams to score	42%	41%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	63%	62%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	16%	19%	−3
Tersana or draw	77%	80%	−3
Tersana clean sheet	44%	–	–
Mega Sport clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.5%

0123450 14.5 8.6 4.4 1 13.7 14.3 5.3 2 9.6 7.9 3.3 3 4.1 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tersana down, Mega Sport across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,532 Second League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.0% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Tersana at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mega Sport away: 0.25 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Tersana, 0.84 for Mega Sport. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 4 Sept

TERSANA

LDWDWD0–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

MEGA SPORT

LLLLLL0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Masar	8	+10	19
2	Haras El Hodood	9	+8	19
3	Itesalat	9	+7	18
4	Kahraba Ismailia	9	+8	17
5	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	8	+6	17
6	AL Nasr SC	9	+6	16
7	Pharco	8	+5	16
8	El Mansura	9	+1	14
9	Tersana	8	+1	13
10	El Seka El Hadid	8	−2	11
11	El Entag EL Harby	8	+3	10
12	Team	9	−5	10
13	Ismaily SC	8	−3	9
14	Tanta SC	9	−4	9
15	El Dakhleya	9	−6	9
16	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	8	−1	8
17	Dayrout	9	−12	6
18	La Viena FC	9	−7	4
19	Proxy	8	−8	4
20	Mega Sport	8	−7	2