Team v Tersana prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:02

Team 0–0 Tersana TERSANA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tersana win~~35%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.699

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.742

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tersana win at 35%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tersana 35% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 34–32–35
1′KICK-OFF Team v Tersana
20′PENALTY MISSED · 20' Team
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Tersana win 34%)
45′SECOND HALF Team 0–0 Tersana
48′HALF-TIME Team 0–0 Tersana
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Tersana win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
60′We said Tersana at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–54–23
68′We said Tersana at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–19
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Tersana win: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
76′We said Tersana at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–72–14
82′We said Tersana at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–82–9
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Tersana win: 35% at kick-off, 5% now
89′We said Tersana at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Team 0–0 Tersana
FTTeam 0–0 Tersana · Tersana win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Tersana just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Team 34%, draw 32%, Tersana 35%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Team v TersanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Team win34%

Draw32%

Tersana win35%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Team

Tersana

8Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

Last match: 16 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Tersana	9	+5	16
15	Team	9	−5	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tersana winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 04:14 · locked at kick-off

35% The market47%

Us35%

~~Market~~47%

We make Tersana a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Team v Tersana~~1.15 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 16~~15 v 8

~~The market · Tersana win~~47% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tersana win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Team win	34%	22%	+12
Draw	32%	31%	+1
Tersana win	35%	47%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	41%	34%	+7
Both teams to score	48%	40%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	69%	60%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	21%	17%	+4
Team or draw	65%	53%	+12
Team clean sheet	32%	–	–
Tersana clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.7%

0123450 12.0 9.7 6.7 2.7 1 9.5 14.7 7.5 3.0 2 6.5 7.4 4.3 3 2.6 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Team down, Tersana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,542 Second League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Team at home: 0.75 scored, 1.75 conceded a game (last 4). Tersana away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Team, 1.17 for Tersana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 11 Sept

TEAM

WDLLLW1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 3–2

TERSANA

DWDWDW1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Masar	9	+9	19
2	Haras El Hodood	9	+8	19
3	Itesalat	10	+7	19
4	Pharco	9	+6	19
5	Kahraba Ismailia	10	+8	18
6	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	10	+5	18
7	AL Nasr SC	10	+6	17
8	Tersana	9	+5	16
9	El Seka El Hadid	10	+2	15
10	El Mansura	9	+1	14
11	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	10	0	12
12	El Entag EL Harby	9	+2	10
13	Ismaily SC	9	−3	10
14	Tanta SC	10	−4	10
15	Team	9	−5	10
16	El Dakhleya	10	−6	10
17	Proxy	9	−7	7
18	Dayrout	10	−16	6
19	La Viena FC	9	−7	4
20	Mega Sport	10	−11	3