Pharco v Itesalat prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PharcoDrawItesalat

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Pharco 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pharco are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pharco 42%, draw 32%, Itesalat 26%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Pharco v ItesalatBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Pharco win42%

Draw32%

Itesalat win26%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pharco

Itesalat

6Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

Last match: 22 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Itesalat	10	+7	19
4	Pharco	10	+4	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pharco winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Pharco a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pharco v Itesalat~~1.28 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 18 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 19~~4 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pharco win

Published at 43%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pharco win	42%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Itesalat win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Pharco or draw	74%	–	–
Pharco clean sheet	39%	–	–
Itesalat clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.5%

0123450 13.0 8.5 4.9 1 11.9 14.5 6.0 2 8.7 8.1 3.8 3 3.8 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pharco down, Itesalat across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,547 Second League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pharco at home: 1.40 scored, 0.60 conceded a game (last 5). Itesalat away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Pharco, 0.95 for Itesalat. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ITE 2–1 PHA · PHA 1–0 ITE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 18 Sept

PHARCO

WLLWWL2–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–4

ITESALAT

LWWLWD0–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Masar	10	+11	22
2	Haras El Hodood	10	+8	20
3	Itesalat	10	+7	19
4	Pharco	10	+4	19
5	Kahraba Ismailia	10	+8	18
6	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	10	+5	18
7	AL Nasr SC	10	+6	17
8	Tersana	10	+5	17
9	El Mansura	10	+2	17
10	El Seka El Hadid	10	+2	15
11	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	10	0	12
12	Team	10	−5	11
13	El Entag EL Harby	10	+1	10
14	Ismaily SC	10	−4	10
15	Tanta SC	10	−4	10
16	El Dakhleya	10	−6	10
17	Proxy	10	−7	8
18	La Viena FC	10	−6	7
19	Dayrout	10	−16	6
20	Mega Sport	10	−11	3