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Mega Sport v Tanta SC

Mega Sport
2–2Full time
Tanta SC

Second League · THU 22 OCT

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 16:01
Mega Sport 2–2 Tanta SC DRAW · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said a draw35%
The market said32%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.632
The market’s Brier score0.703

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 35%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 35% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 33–35–32
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Mega Sport v Tanta SC
  4. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 45% now
  5. 42′We said the draw at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 47%. 0–0 · 27–47–26
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Mega Sport 0–0 Tanta SC
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Mega Sport 0–0 Tanta SC
  8. 47′We said the draw at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 50%. 0–0 · 26–50–25
  9. 55′We said the draw at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 55%. 0–0 · 23–55–22
  10. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 55% now
  11. 56′A goal for Mega Sport on 56′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–18–4
  12. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Mega Sport 1–0 Tanta SC
  13. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 18% now
  14. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Mega Sport win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 55%)
  15. 57′We said the draw at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 78–18–4
  16. 58′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 79–18–3
  17. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
  18. 69′We said the draw at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
  19. 70′Tanta SC score on 69′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 16–68–16
  20. 70′We said the draw at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–1 · 16–68–16
  21. 70′Mega Sport find the net on 70′. 2–1. 2–1 · 84–14–2
  22. 70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Mega Sport 1–1 Tanta SC
  23. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 68% now
  24. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Mega Sport win 84%)
  25. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Mega Sport 2–1 Tanta SC
  26. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 14% now
  27. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Mega Sport win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 68%)
  28. 71′3 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 85–14–1
  29. 79′We said the draw at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  30. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 5% now
  31. 88′We said the draw at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
  32. 96′A goal for Tanta SC on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 1–98–1
  33. 96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Mega Sport 2–2 Tanta SC
  34. 96′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+6' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 98% now
  35. 96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Mega Sport win 99%)
  36. 97′We said the draw at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–2 · 1–98–1
  37. FTFULL TIME Mega Sport 2–2 Tanta SC
  38. FTMega Sport 2–2 Tanta SC · Draw: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Mega Sport 33%, draw 35%, Tanta SC 32%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Mega Sport v Tanta SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Mega Sport win33%
Draw35%
Tanta SC win32%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mega Sport

Tanta SC

6Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

Last match: 15 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
15Tanta SC9−49
20Mega Sport9−112

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off
35% The market32%
Us35%
Market32%

We make the draw a 35% chance. The market has it at 32%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Mega Sport v Tanta SC0.98 – 0.95
Form · last six in Second League this season · since 10 SeptW0 D0 L6 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 2 v 920 v 15
The market · Draw32% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 16 OCT 00:0022 OCT 13:07
Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Mega Sport win33%32%+1
Draw35%32%+3
Tanta SC win32%36%−4
Over 2.5 goals30%34%−4
Both teams to score39%43%−4
Over 1.5 goals59%60%−1
Over 3.5 goals13%16%−3
Mega Sport or draw68%64%+4
Mega Sport clean sheet39%––
Tanta SC clean sheet38%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.8%
0123450 16.8 12.0 6.6 2.2 1 12.3 14.9 6.3 2.0 2 6.9 6.4 3.1 3 2.3 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Mega Sport down, Tanta SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 10 Sept

MEGA SPORT

LLLLLL1–2 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–4

TANTA SC

LWDLLD1–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Masar9+919
2Haras El Hodood9+819
3Pharco9+619
4Itesalat9+718
5Kahraba Ismailia9+817
6Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat9+517
7AL Nasr SC9+616
8Tersana9+516
9El Mansura9+114
10El Seka El Hadid9−212
11Baladiyyat Al Mehalla9011
12El Entag EL Harby9+210
13Ismaily SC9−310
14Team9−510
15Tanta SC9−49
16El Dakhleya9−69
17Proxy9−77
18Dayrout9−126
19La Viena FC9−74
20Mega Sport9−112

The competition's standings before kick-off.