Masar v Pharco prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:02

Masar 4–2 Pharco MASAR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Masar win~~45%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.457

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.513

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Masar win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Masar was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–31–25
1′KICK-OFF Masar v Pharco
12′We published Masar at 45%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–16–9
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Masar 1–0 Pharco
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Masar win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
13′Masar score on 12′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–16–9
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–7
41′We published Masar at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Masar 2–0 Pharco
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Masar win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
42′Masar find the net on 42′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′We published Masar at 45%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Masar 3–0 Pharco
45′SECOND HALF Masar 3–0 Pharco
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Masar 4–0 Pharco
46′A goal for Masar on 45′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
46′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
47′Masar score on 46′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
47′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 99–1–0
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Masar 4–1 Pharco
48′Pharco find the net on 48′. 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
51′6 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 96–4–1
51′HALF-TIME Masar 3–0 Pharco
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Masar 4–2 Pharco
52′A goal for Pharco on 52′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 96–3–1
96′Full time, 4–2. We called Masar at 45% — that one lands. 4–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Masar 4–2 Pharco
FTMasar 4–2 Pharco · Masar win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Masar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Masar 45%, draw 30%, Pharco 25%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Masar v PharcoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Masar win45%

Draw30%

Pharco win25%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Masar

Pharco

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · masar winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

45% The market42%

Us45%

~~Market~~42%

We make Masar a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Masar v Pharco~~1.41 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 10 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 19~~1 v 4

~~The market · Masar win~~42% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Masar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Masar win	45%	42%	+3
Draw	30%	33%	−3
Pharco win	25%	25%	0
Over 2.5 goals	42%	31%	+11
Both teams to score	48%	39%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	70%	57%	+13
Over 3.5 goals	22%	15%	+7
Masar or draw	75%	75%	0
Masar clean sheet	38%	–	–
Pharco clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 11.4 7.4 4.5 1 11.2 14.1 6.0 2.0 2 9.0 8.5 4.2 3 4.3 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Masar down, Pharco across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,542 Second League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Masar at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Pharco away: 1.25 scored, 0.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Masar, 0.98 for Pharco. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 10 Sept

MASAR

WDWLWL3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–2

PHARCO

WWLLWW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Masar	9	+9	19
2	Haras El Hodood	9	+8	19
3	Itesalat	10	+7	19
4	Pharco	9	+6	19
5	Kahraba Ismailia	10	+8	18
6	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	10	+5	18
7	AL Nasr SC	10	+6	17
8	Tersana	9	+5	16
9	El Seka El Hadid	10	+2	15
10	El Mansura	9	+1	14
11	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	10	0	12
12	El Entag EL Harby	9	+2	10
13	Ismaily SC	9	−3	10
14	Tanta SC	10	−4	10
15	Team	9	−5	10
16	El Dakhleya	10	−6	10
17	Proxy	9	−7	7
18	Dayrout	10	−16	6
19	La Viena FC	9	−7	4
20	Mega Sport	10	−11	3