Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat v Kahraba Ismailia prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 16:01

Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 0–0 Kahraba Ismailia KAHRABA ISMAILIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kahraba Ismailia win~~38%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.700

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.664

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kahraba Ismailia win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kahraba Ismailia 38% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 31–32–37
1′KICK-OFF Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat v Kahraba Ismailia
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Kahraba Ismailia win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 0–0 Kahraba Ismailia
46′SECOND HALF Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 0–0 Kahraba Ismailia
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Kahraba Ismailia win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
56′We said Kahraba Ismailia at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 23–51–26
61′We said Kahraba Ismailia at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 21–55–24
70′We said Kahraba Ismailia at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–64–19
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Kahraba Ismailia win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
77′We said Kahraba Ismailia at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 12–74–14
82′We said Kahraba Ismailia at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–82–9
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Kahraba Ismailia win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
89′We said Kahraba Ismailia at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 0–0 Kahraba Ismailia
FTMaleyet Kafr El Zayiat 0–0 Kahraba Ismailia · Kahraba Ismailia win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kahraba Ismailia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 31%, draw 32%, Kahraba Ismailia 38%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat v Kahraba IsmailiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat win31%

Draw32%

Kahraba Ismailia win38%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat

Kahraba Ismailia

6Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

Last match: 15 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Kahraba Ismailia	9	+8	17
6	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	9	+5	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kahraba ismailia winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 22 Oct 03:55 · locked at kick-off

38% The market37%

Us38%

~~Market~~37%

We make Kahraba Ismailia a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat v Kahraba Ismailia~~1.07 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 10 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 17~~6 v 5

~~The market · Kahraba Ismailia win~~37% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kahraba Ismailia win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat win	31%	29%	+2
Draw	32%	34%	−2
Kahraba Ismailia win	38%	37%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	40%	31%	+9
Both teams to score	47%	39%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	68%	56%	+12
Over 3.5 goals	20%	15%	+5
Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat or draw	62%	63%	−1
Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat clean sheet	30%	–	–
Kahraba Ismailia clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.6%

0123450 12.4 10.6 7.4 3.1 1 9.2 14.6 7.7 3.2 2 5.9 6.9 4.1 3 2.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat down, Kahraba Ismailia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,537 Second League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.1% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kahraba Ismailia away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat, 1.22 for Kahraba Ismailia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 10 Sept

MALEYET KAFR EL ZAYIAT

WWWLWL2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

KAHRABA ISMAILIA

WWWWDL3–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Masar	9	+9	19
2	Haras El Hodood	9	+8	19
3	Pharco	9	+6	19
4	Itesalat	9	+7	18
5	Kahraba Ismailia	9	+8	17
6	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	9	+5	17
7	AL Nasr SC	9	+6	16
8	Tersana	9	+5	16
9	El Mansura	9	+1	14
10	El Seka El Hadid	9	−2	12
11	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	9	0	11
12	El Entag EL Harby	9	+2	10
13	Ismaily SC	9	−3	10
14	Team	9	−5	10
15	Tanta SC	9	−4	9
16	El Dakhleya	9	−6	9
17	Proxy	9	−7	7
18	Dayrout	9	−12	6
19	La Viena FC	9	−7	4
20	Mega Sport	9	−11	2