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Model 1.1

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La Viena FC v Haras El Hodood

La Viena FC
0–0Full time
Haras El Hodood

Second League · THU 15 OCT · Al Assiouty Sport Stadium

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 16:01
La Viena FC 0–0 Haras El Hodood DRAW · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said a draw36%
The market said32%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.608
The market’s Brier score0.730

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 36%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF La Viena FC v Haras El Hodood
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: the draw 36% before kick-off, 33% now. 0–0 · 31–33–36
  4. 18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Haras El Hodood win 33%)
  5. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 46% now
  6. 42′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 48%. 0–0 · 24–48–28
  7. 45′HALF-TIME La Viena FC 0–0 Haras El Hodood
  8. 46′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 50%. 0–0 · 23–50–27
  9. 46′SECOND HALF La Viena FC 0–0 Haras El Hodood
  10. 53′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 55%. 0–0 · 21–55–24
  11. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 56% now
  12. 60′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 60%. 0–0 · 19–60–21
  13. 65′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–0 · 17–65–19
  14. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 66% now
  15. 70′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–0 · 14–70–16
  16. 74′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–0 · 12–75–13
  17. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
  18. 78′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–0 · 9–80–11
  19. 82′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 0–0 · 7–86–7
  20. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 86% now
  21. 85′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–0 · 5–90–5
  22. 91′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–0 · 2–95–3
  23. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
  24. FTFULL TIME La Viena FC 0–0 Haras El Hodood
  25. FTLa Viena FC 0–0 Haras El Hodood · Draw: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: La Viena FC 29%, draw 36%, Haras El Hodood 34%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on La Viena FC v Haras El HodoodBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

La Viena FC win29%
Draw36%
Haras El Hodood win34%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueAl Assiouty Sport Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

La Viena FC

Haras El Hodood

6Days since last match7
2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Haras El Hodood8+818
19La Viena FC8−73

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 10 Oct 03:55 · locked at kick-off
36% The market32%
Us36%
Market32%

We make the draw a 36% chance. The market has it at 32%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · La Viena FC v Haras El Hodood0.85 – 0.94
Form · last six in Second League this season · since 3 SeptW0 D1 L5 · W4 D2 L0
Table places · points 3 v 1819 v 2
The market · Draw32% · ours 36%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40% 9 OCT 07:1915 OCT 12:32
Our probability · draw The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
La Viena FC win29%20%+9
Draw36%32%+4
Haras El Hodood win34%48%−14
Over 2.5 goals27%32%−5
Both teams to score36%37%−1
Over 1.5 goals55%57%−2
Over 3.5 goals11%16%−5
La Viena FC or draw66%52%+14
La Viena FC clean sheet40%––
Haras El Hodood clean sheet44%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 19.0%
0123450 19.0 14.0 7.4 2.4 1 12.3 14.6 6.1 2 6.0 5.5 2.6 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+La Viena FC down, Haras El Hodood across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsHAR 0–0 LAV · LAV 2–2 HAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 3 Sept

LA VIENA FC

LLDLLL0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2

HARAS EL HODOOD

WWWDWD2–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Masar8+1019
2Haras El Hodood8+818
3Kahraba Ismailia8+917
4Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat8+617
5Pharco8+516
6Itesalat8+515
7El Mansura8+214
8AL Nasr SC8+513
9Tersana8+113
10El Seka El Hadid8−211
11El Entag EL Harby8+310
12Ismaily SC8−39
13El Dakhleya8−49
14Baladiyyat Al Mehalla8−18
15Tanta SC8−48
16Team8−67
17Dayrout8−125
18Proxy8−84
19La Viena FC8−73
20Mega Sport8−72

The competition's standings before kick-off.