Kahraba Ismailia v Team prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 16:01

Kahraba Ismailia 2–3 Team KAHRABA ISMAILIA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kahraba Ismailia win~~64%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.214

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.170

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kahraba Ismailia win at 64%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kahraba Ismailia was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 66–20–14
1′KICK-OFF Kahraba Ismailia v Team
20′Team find the net on 20′. 0–1. 0–1 · 34–27–39
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Kahraba Ismailia 0–1 Team
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Kahraba Ismailia win: 64% at kick-off, 34% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Team win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Kahraba Ismailia win 34%)
21′We said Kahraba Ismailia at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–1 · 33–27–39
30′A goal for Team on 29′. 0–1 · 29–28–42
30′We said Kahraba Ismailia at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–2 · 11–18–71
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Kahraba Ismailia 0–2 Team
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Kahraba Ismailia win: 64% at kick-off, 11% now
36′We said Kahraba Ismailia at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–2 · 9–17–74
45′HALF-TIME Kahraba Ismailia 0–2 Team
45′SECOND HALF Kahraba Ismailia 0–2 Team
49′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–2 · 5–14–81
53′We said Kahraba Ismailia at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–12–83
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Kahraba Ismailia win: 64% at kick-off, 4% now
77′Team find the net on 76′. 0–2 · 0–3–97
77′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Kahraba Ismailia 0–3 Team
79′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–2–97
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Kahraba Ismailia 1–3 Team
80′Kahraba Ismailia find the net on 79′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
95′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–2–98
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Kahraba Ismailia 2–3 Team
96′A goal for Kahraba Ismailia on 90′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME Kahraba Ismailia 2–3 Team
FTKahraba Ismailia 2–3 Team · Kahraba Ismailia win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kahraba Ismailia are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kahraba Ismailia 64%, draw 22%, Team 13%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Kahraba Ismailia v TeamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Kahraba Ismailia win64%

Draw22%

Team win13%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kahraba Ismailia

Team

7Days since last match6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Kahraba Ismailia	8	+9	17
16	Team	8	−6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kahraba ismailia winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 10 Oct 03:55 · locked at kick-off

64% The market61%

Us64%

~~Market~~61%

We make Kahraba Ismailia a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kahraba Ismailia v Team~~2.10 – 0.84

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 3 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 7~~3 v 16

~~The market · Kahraba Ismailia win~~61% · ours 64%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kahraba ismailia win The market, margin stripped

Published at 61%, 64% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kahraba Ismailia win	64%	61%	+3
Draw	22%	25%	−2
Team win	13%	14%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	56%	45%	+10
Both teams to score	50%	43%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	79%	69%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	34%	26%	+8
Kahraba Ismailia or draw	87%	86%	+1
Kahraba Ismailia clean sheet	44%	–	–
Team clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.3%

0123450 7.1 3.5 2.0 1 10.0 10.5 3.9 2 11.3 9.3 3.9 3 7.8 6.4 2.7 4 4.2 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kahraba Ismailia down, Team across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,527 Second League matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.8% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Kahraba Ismailia at home: 2.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Team away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.10 goals for Kahraba Ismailia, 0.84 for Team. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 3 Sept

KAHRABA ISMAILIA

LWWWWD0–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–2

TEAM

WWDLLL1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Masar	8	+10	19
2	Haras El Hodood	8	+8	18
3	Kahraba Ismailia	8	+9	17
4	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	8	+6	17
5	Pharco	8	+5	16
6	Itesalat	8	+5	15
7	El Mansura	8	+2	14
8	AL Nasr SC	8	+5	13
9	Tersana	8	+1	13
10	El Seka El Hadid	8	−2	11
11	El Entag EL Harby	8	+3	10
12	Ismaily SC	8	−3	9
13	El Dakhleya	8	−4	9
14	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	8	−1	8
15	Tanta SC	8	−4	8
16	Team	8	−6	7
17	Dayrout	8	−12	5
18	Proxy	8	−8	4
19	La Viena FC	8	−7	3
20	Mega Sport	8	−7	2