Itesalat v Baladiyyat Al Mehalla prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 16:01

Itesalat 0–0 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla ITESALAT WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Itesalat win~~38%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.650

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.694

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Itesalat win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Itesalat was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–35–27
1′KICK-OFF Itesalat v Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Itesalat win 37%)
45′HALF-TIME Itesalat 0–0 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
46′SECOND HALF Itesalat 0–0 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Itesalat win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
54′We said Itesalat at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–53–20
59′We said Itesalat at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–19
68′We said Itesalat at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–66–15
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Itesalat win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
75′We said Itesalat at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–11
81′We said Itesalat at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Itesalat win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
89′We said Itesalat at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Itesalat 0–0 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
FTItesalat 0–0 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla · Itesalat win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Itesalat just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Itesalat 38%, draw 34%, Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 27%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Itesalat v Baladiyyat Al MehallaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Itesalat win38%

Draw34%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla win27%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueTelecom Egypt Club Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Itesalat

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

7Days since last match6

Last match: 15 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

Last match: 16 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Itesalat	9	+7	18
11	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	9	0	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · itesalat winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 22 Oct 03:55 · locked at kick-off

38% The market44%

Us38%

~~Market~~44%

We make Itesalat a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Itesalat v Baladiyyat Al Mehalla~~1.09 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 10 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 11~~4 v 11

~~The market · Itesalat win~~44% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Itesalat win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Itesalat win	38%	44%	−6
Draw	34%	33%	+1
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla win	27%	23%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	31%	30%	+1
Both teams to score	40%	37%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	60%	56%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	14%	14%	0
Itesalat or draw	73%	77%	−4
Itesalat clean sheet	42%	–	–
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.2%

0123450 16.2 10.5 5.4 1 13.4 14.8 5.7 2 8.2 7.1 3.1 3 3.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Itesalat down, Baladiyyat Al Mehalla across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,537 Second League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.1% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Itesalat at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Baladiyyat Al Mehalla away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Itesalat, 0.88 for Baladiyyat Al Mehalla. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BAL 1–0 ITE · ITE 1–0 BAL · BAL 0–0 ITE · ITE 2–0 BAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 10 Sept

ITESALAT

WLWWLW3–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 3–1

BALADIYYAT AL MEHALLA

LLDWLW1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Masar	9	+9	19
2	Haras El Hodood	9	+8	19
3	Pharco	9	+6	19
4	Itesalat	9	+7	18
5	Kahraba Ismailia	9	+8	17
6	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	9	+5	17
7	AL Nasr SC	9	+6	16
8	Tersana	9	+5	16
9	El Mansura	9	+1	14
10	El Seka El Hadid	9	−2	12
11	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	9	0	11
12	El Entag EL Harby	9	+2	10
13	Ismaily SC	9	−3	10
14	Team	9	−5	10
15	Tanta SC	9	−4	9
16	El Dakhleya	9	−6	9
17	Proxy	9	−7	7
18	Dayrout	9	−12	6
19	La Viena FC	9	−7	4
20	Mega Sport	9	−11	2