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Ismaily SC v Tanta SC

Ismaily SC

2–1Full time

Tanta SC

Second League · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 16:01

Ismaily SC 2–1 Tanta SC ISMAILY SC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ismaily SC win~~40%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.545

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.486

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Match events aren’t available for this match.

Pre-match prediction

Ismaily SC win40%

Draw33%

Tanta SC win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 13:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ismaily sc winPublished 9 Oct 15:51

40% The market43%

Us40%

~~Market~~43%

We make Ismaily SC a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ismaily SC win	40%	43%	−3
Draw	33%	32%	+1
Tanta SC win	28%	25%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	37%	35%	+2
Both teams to score	44%	42%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	65%	60%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	18%	17%	0
Ismaily SC or draw	72%	75%	−2
Ismaily SC clean sheet	39%	–	–
Tanta SC clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.7%

0123450 13.8 9.3 5.3 1 12.1 14.7 6.2 2.0 2 8.3 7.7 3.7 3 3.4 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ismaily SC down, Tanta SC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,522 Second League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.7% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Ismaily SC at home: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 3). Tanta SC away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Ismaily SC, 0.96 for Tanta SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Second League

ISMAILY SC

LDDLWD1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 2–2

TANTA SC

DLLWDL0–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Masar	8	+10	19
2	Haras El Hodood	8	+8	18
3	Kahraba Ismailia	8	+9	17
4	Itesalat	7	+6	15
5	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	7	+5	14
6	AL Nasr SC	8	+5	13
7	Pharco	7	+2	13
8	Tersana	8	+1	13
9	El Mansura	7	+1	11
10	El Seka El Hadid	8	−2	11
11	El Dakhleya	8	−4	9
12	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	7	0	8
13	Tanta SC	7	−3	8
14	El Entag EL Harby	7	+1	7
15	Team	7	−3	7
16	Ismaily SC	7	−4	6
17	Dayrout	8	−12	5
18	Proxy	8	−8	4
19	La Viena FC	7	−5	3
20	Mega Sport	8	−7	2