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Model 1.2

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Ismaily SC v La Viena FC

Ismaily SC
0–1Full time
La Viena FC

Second League · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:02
Ismaily SC 0–1 La Viena FC DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said a draw34%
The market said31%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.675
The market’s Brier score0.943

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 34%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: the draw was 34% before kick-off and our model makes it 34% now. 0–0 · 33–34–33
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Ismaily SC v La Viena FC
  4. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Draw: 34% at kick-off, 44% now
  5. 44′We published the draw at 34%. Our model now makes it 46%. 0–0 · 27–46–27
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Ismaily SC 0–0 La Viena FC
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Ismaily SC 0–0 La Viena FC
  8. 51′We published the draw at 34%. Our model now makes it 50%. 0–0 · 25–50–25
  9. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Draw: 34% at kick-off, 54% now
  10. 58′We published the draw at 34%. Our model now makes it 55%. 0–0 · 23–55–22
  11. 64′We published the draw at 34%. Our model now makes it 60%. 0–0 · 20–60–20
  12. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Draw: 34% at kick-off, 64% now
  13. 69′We published the draw at 34%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–0 · 17–65–17
  14. 72′La Viena FC find the net on 71′. 0–1. 0–1 · 2–14–84
  15. 72′We said the draw at 34%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 2–14–84
  16. 72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Ismaily SC 0–1 La Viena FC
  17. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Draw: 34% at kick-off, 14% now
  18. 72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' La Viena FC win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 69%)
  19. 80′We said the draw at 34%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
  20. 88′We said the draw at 34%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 0–4–96
  21. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Draw: 34% at kick-off, 4% now
  22. FTFULL TIME Ismaily SC 0–1 La Viena FC
  23. FTIsmaily SC 0–1 La Viena FC · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Ismaily SC 33%, draw 34%, La Viena FC 33%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Ismaily SC v La Viena FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Ismaily SC win33%
Draw34%
La Viena FC win33%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ismaily SC

La Viena FC

7Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

Last match: 15 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
13Ismaily SC9−310
19La Viena FC9−74

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 04:14 · locked at kick-off
34% The market31%
Us34%
Market31%

We make the draw a 34% chance. The market has it at 31%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ismaily SC v La Viena FC1.06 – 1.05
Form · last six in Second League this season · since 11 SeptW2 D3 L1 · W0 D2 L4
Table places · points 10 v 413 v 19
The market · Draw31% · ours 34%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 13:03
Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Published at 33%, 34% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ismaily SC win33%48%−15
Draw34%31%+3
La Viena FC win33%21%+12
Over 2.5 goals35%35%0
Both teams to score43%40%+3
Over 1.5 goals64%60%+4
Over 3.5 goals16%17%−1
Ismaily SC or draw67%79%−12
Ismaily SC clean sheet36%––
La Viena FC clean sheet35%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 15.0%
0123450 14.5 10.9 6.7 2.4 1 11.0 15.0 6.9 2.5 2 6.8 6.9 3.6 3 2.5 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ismaily SC down, La Viena FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 11 Sept

ISMAILY SC

DLWDWD1–1 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

LA VIENA FC

LDLLLD1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Masar9+919
2Haras El Hodood9+819
3Itesalat10+719
4Pharco9+619
5Kahraba Ismailia10+818
6Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat10+518
7AL Nasr SC10+617
8Tersana9+516
9El Seka El Hadid10+215
10El Mansura9+114
11Baladiyyat Al Mehalla10012
12El Entag EL Harby9+210
13Ismaily SC9−310
14Tanta SC10−410
15Team9−510
16El Dakhleya10−610
17Proxy9−77
18Dayrout10−166
19La Viena FC9−74
20Mega Sport10−113

The competition's standings before kick-off.