Haras El Hodood v Proxy prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32

Haras El Hodood 2–2 Proxy HARAS EL HODOOD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Haras El Hodood win~~47%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.727

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.819

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Haras El Hodood win at 47%.
0′KICK-OFF Haras El Hodood v Proxy
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Haras El Hodood 0–1 Proxy
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Haras El Hodood win: 47% at kick-off, 23% now
2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Proxy win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Haras El Hodood win 47%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Haras El Hodood win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Haras El Hodood 1–1 Proxy
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Haras El Hodood win: 47% at kick-off, 42% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Proxy win 58%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Haras El Hodood win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′HALF-TIME Haras El Hodood 1–1 Proxy
45′SECOND HALF Haras El Hodood 1–1 Proxy
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Haras El Hodood 2–1 Proxy
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Haras El Hodood win: 47% at kick-off, 83% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Haras El Hodood win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 50%)
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Haras El Hodood win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Haras El Hodood 2–2 Proxy
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Haras El Hodood win: 47% at kick-off, 24% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Haras El Hodood win 87%)
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Haras El Hodood win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Haras El Hodood win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
FTFULL TIME Haras El Hodood 2–2 Proxy
FTHaras El Hodood 2–2 Proxy · Haras El Hodood win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Haras El Hodood are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Haras El Hodood 47%, draw 32%, Proxy 20%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Haras El Hodood v ProxyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Haras El Hodood win47%

Draw32%

Proxy win20%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueHarras El Hodood Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Haras El Hodood

Proxy

8Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

Last match: 16 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Haras El Hodood	9	+8	19
17	Proxy	9	−7	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · haras el hodood winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 04:14 · locked at kick-off

47% The market52%

Us47%

~~Market~~52%

We make Haras El Hodood a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Haras El Hodood v Proxy~~1.31 – 0.77

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 10 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 19 v 7~~2 v 17

~~The market · Haras El Hodood win~~52% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Haras El Hodood win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Haras El Hodood win	47%	52%	−5
Draw	32%	29%	+3
Proxy win	20%	19%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
Both teams to score	40%	43%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	63%	62%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	16%	20%	−4
Haras El Hodood or draw	80%	81%	−1
Haras El Hodood clean sheet	47%	–	–
Proxy clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.8%

0123450 14.8 7.9 3.8 1 14.6 13.9 4.7 2 10.6 7.9 3.1 3 4.7 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Haras El Hodood down, Proxy across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,542 Second League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Haras El Hodood at home: 0.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Proxy away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Haras El Hodood, 0.77 for Proxy. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PRO 0–1 HAR · HAR 1–1 PRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 10 Sept

HARAS EL HODOOD

WWDWDD2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

PROXY

LLLLDW0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Masar	9	+9	19
2	Haras El Hodood	9	+8	19
3	Itesalat	10	+7	19
4	Pharco	9	+6	19
5	Kahraba Ismailia	10	+8	18
6	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	10	+5	18
7	AL Nasr SC	10	+6	17
8	Tersana	9	+5	16
9	El Seka El Hadid	10	+2	15
10	El Mansura	9	+1	14
11	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	10	0	12
12	El Entag EL Harby	9	+2	10
13	Ismaily SC	9	−3	10
14	Tanta SC	10	−4	10
15	Team	9	−5	10
16	El Dakhleya	10	−6	10
17	Proxy	9	−7	7
18	Dayrout	10	−16	6
19	La Viena FC	9	−7	4
20	Mega Sport	10	−11	3