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El Entag EL Harby v El Mansura

El Entag EL Harby

2–3Full time

El Mansura

Second League · FRI 23 OCT · Al Salam Stadium

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:02

El Entag EL Harby 2–3 El Mansura EL ENTAG EL HARBY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said El Entag EL Harby win~~38%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.736

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.609

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said El Entag EL Harby win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: El Entag EL Harby 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–32–30
1′KICK-OFF El Entag EL Harby v El Mansura
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was El Entag EL Harby win 36%)
36′El Mansura score on 36′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–22–67
36′We said El Entag EL Harby at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–22–67
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' El Entag EL Harby 0–1 El Mansura
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' El Entag EL Harby win: 38% at kick-off, 10% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' El Mansura win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 40%)
37′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 10–22–67
40′We said El Entag EL Harby at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–68
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' El Entag EL Harby win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
45′HALF-TIME El Entag EL Harby 1–1 El Mansura
46′SECOND HALF El Entag EL Harby 1–1 El Mansura
47′A goal for El Mansura on 47′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 8–22–70
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' El Entag EL Harby 1–2 El Mansura
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' El Entag EL Harby win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' El Mansura win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 45%)
48′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 8–22–70
49′El Entag EL Harby find the net on 45′. 1–1. 1–1 · 29–47–24 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
49′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' El Entag EL Harby 1–1 El Mansura
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+4' El Entag EL Harby win: 38% at kick-off, 29% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was El Mansura win 70%)
53′El Mansura score on 53′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–94
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' El Entag EL Harby 1–3 El Mansura
54′We said El Entag EL Harby at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–5–94
54′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–5–94
71′El Entag EL Harby find the net on 71′. 2–3. 2–3 · 2–16–82
71′5 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 2–16–82
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' El Entag EL Harby 2–3 El Mansura
FTFULL TIME El Entag EL Harby 2–3 El Mansura
FTEl Entag EL Harby 2–3 El Mansura · El Entag EL Harby win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

El Entag EL Harby are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: El Entag EL Harby 38%, draw 32%, El Mansura 30%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on El Entag EL Harby v El MansuraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

El Entag EL Harby win38%

Draw32%

El Mansura win30%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueAl Salam Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

El Entag EL Harby

El Mansura

7Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

Last match: 15 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	El Mansura	9	+1	14
12	El Entag EL Harby	9	+2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · el entag el harby winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

38% The market34%

Us38%

~~Market~~34%

We make El Entag EL Harby a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · El Entag EL Harby v El Mansura~~1.22 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 14~~12 v 10

~~The market · El Entag EL Harby win~~34% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · El Entag EL Harby win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
El Entag EL Harby win	38%	34%	+4
Draw	32%	30%	+2
El Mansura win	30%	36%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	39%	42%	−3
Both teams to score	47%	49%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	68%	67%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	22%	−2
El Entag EL Harby or draw	70%	64%	+6
El Entag EL Harby clean sheet	35%	–	–
El Mansura clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.7%

0123450 12.6 9.1 5.8 2.1 1 10.7 14.7 6.8 2.4 2 7.6 7.8 4.1 3 3.1 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+El Entag EL Harby down, El Mansura across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,542 Second League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

El Entag EL Harby at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). El Mansura away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for El Entag EL Harby, 1.05 for El Mansura. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ELE 0–0 ELM · ELM 0–2 ELE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 11 Sept

EL ENTAG EL HARBY

DWDLWL1–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 4–5 · 2–0 · 2–3

EL MANSURA

DDLWWL1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Masar	9	+9	19
2	Haras El Hodood	9	+8	19
3	Itesalat	10	+7	19
4	Pharco	9	+6	19
5	Kahraba Ismailia	10	+8	18
6	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	10	+5	18
7	AL Nasr SC	10	+6	17
8	Tersana	9	+5	16
9	El Seka El Hadid	10	+2	15
10	El Mansura	9	+1	14
11	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	10	0	12
12	El Entag EL Harby	9	+2	10
13	Ismaily SC	9	−3	10
14	Tanta SC	10	−4	10
15	Team	9	−5	10
16	El Dakhleya	10	−6	10
17	Proxy	9	−7	7
18	Dayrout	10	−16	6
19	La Viena FC	9	−7	4
20	Mega Sport	10	−11	3