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El Dakhleya v Itesalat
El DakhleyaItesalatSecond League · THU 15 OCT · Police Academy Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Itesalat win at 35%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Itesalat was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 33–30–37
- 1′KICK-OFF El Dakhleya v Itesalat
- 9′A goal for Itesalat on 9′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–21–67
- 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' El Dakhleya 0–1 Itesalat
- 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Itesalat win: 35% at kick-off, 67% now
- 10′We published Itesalat at 35%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 12–21–68
- 24′PENALTY MISSED · 24' El Dakhleya
- 26′We published Itesalat at 35%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 9–21–70
- 35′El Dakhleya score on 35′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 29–40–31
- 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' El Dakhleya 1–1 Itesalat
- 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Itesalat win: 35% at kick-off, 31% now
- 35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Itesalat win 31%)
- 45′HALF-TIME El Dakhleya 1–1 Itesalat
- 46′SECOND HALF El Dakhleya 1–1 Itesalat
- 47′Itesalat find the net on 47′. 1–2. 1–2 · 6–20–74
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' El Dakhleya 1–2 Itesalat
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Itesalat win: 35% at kick-off, 74% now
- 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Itesalat win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
- 48′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 6–20–74
- 49′We published Itesalat at 35%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 5–20–75
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Itesalat win: 35% at kick-off, 75% now
- 63′We published Itesalat at 35%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
- 72′We published Itesalat at 35%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Itesalat win: 35% at kick-off, 85% now
- 76′A goal for Itesalat on 76′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
- 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' El Dakhleya 1–3 Itesalat
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Itesalat win: 35% at kick-off, 99% now
- 77′We published Itesalat at 35%. Our model now makes it 99%. 1–3 · 0–1–99
- 78′4 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–99
- 81′We published Itesalat at 35%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
- FTFULL TIME El Dakhleya 1–3 Itesalat
- FTEl Dakhleya 1–3 Itesalat · Itesalat win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassClose to call, with Itesalat just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: El Dakhleya 32%, draw 33%, Itesalat 35%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 44%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off
El Dakhleya win32%Itesalat win35%Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 13:30
RoundMatchday 9
VenuePolice Academy Stadium
Match timeline
All events
El DakhleyaMINItesalatEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
El Dakhleya
Itesalat
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Itesalat | 8 | +5 | 15 |
| 13 | El Dakhleya | 8 | −4 | 9 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Itesalat a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 36%, 35% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Dakhleya win | 32% | 23% | +9 |
| Draw | 33% | 34% | −1 |
| Itesalat win | 35% | 42% | −7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 31% | +5 |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 38% | +6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | 56% | +9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 16% | +1 |
| El Dakhleya or draw | 65% | 58% | +7 |
| El Dakhleya clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
| Itesalat clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
6 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Second League this season · since 3 Sept
EL DAKHLEYA
ITESALAT
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Masar | 8 | +10 | 19 |
| 2 |  Haras El Hodood | 8 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 |  Kahraba Ismailia | 8 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 |  Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 8 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 |  Pharco | 8 | +5 | 16 |
| 6 | Itesalat | 8 | +5 | 15 |
| 7 |  El Mansura | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 |  AL Nasr SC | 8 | +5 | 13 |
| 9 |  Tersana | 8 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 |  El Seka El Hadid | 8 | −2 | 11 |
| 11 |  El Entag EL Harby | 8 | +3 | 10 |
| 12 |  Ismaily SC | 8 | −3 | 9 |
| 13 | El Dakhleya | 8 | −4 | 9 |
| 14 |  Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 8 | −1 | 8 |
| 15 |  Tanta SC | 8 | −4 | 8 |
| 16 |  Team | 8 | −6 | 7 |
| 17 |  Dayrout | 8 | −12 | 5 |
| 18 |  Proxy | 8 | −8 | 4 |
| 19 |  La Viena FC | 8 | −7 | 3 |
| 20 |  Mega Sport | 8 | −7 | 2 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.