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Dayrout v El Seka El Hadid

Dayrout

1–5Full time

El Seka El Hadid

Second League · THU 22 OCT

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 16:01

Dayrout 1–5 El Seka El Hadid EL SEKA EL HADID WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said El Seka El Hadid win~~37%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.596

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.447

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said El Seka El Hadid win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: El Seka El Hadid was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 28–35–37
1′KICK-OFF Dayrout v El Seka El Hadid
14′El Seka El Hadid score on 14′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–19–72
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Dayrout 0–1 El Seka El Hadid
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' El Seka El Hadid win: 37% at kick-off, 72% now
15′We published El Seka El Hadid at 37%. Our model now makes it 73%. 0–1 · 9–19–73
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 7–19–74
33′We published El Seka El Hadid at 37%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 7–19–75
40′El Seka El Hadid find the net on 39′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
40′We published El Seka El Hadid at 37%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Dayrout 0–2 El Seka El Hadid
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' El Seka El Hadid win: 37% at kick-off, 94% now
41′We published El Seka El Hadid at 37%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
44′A goal for Dayrout on 44′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 5–18–77
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Dayrout 1–2 El Seka El Hadid
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' El Seka El Hadid win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
45′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 5–18–77
45′El Seka El Hadid score on 45′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–95
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Dayrout 1–3 El Seka El Hadid
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' El Seka El Hadid win: 37% at kick-off, 95% now
45′HALF-TIME Dayrout 1–3 El Seka El Hadid
46′4 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–4–95
46′SECOND HALF Dayrout 1–3 El Seka El Hadid
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' El Seka El Hadid win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
80′We published El Seka El Hadid at 37%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
85′El Seka El Hadid find the net on 84′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
85′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Dayrout 1–4 El Seka El Hadid
88′A goal for El Seka El Hadid on 88′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Dayrout 1–5 El Seka El Hadid
89′6 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Dayrout 1–5 El Seka El Hadid
FTDayrout 1–5 El Seka El Hadid · El Seka El Hadid win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with El Seka El Hadid just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Dayrout 28%, draw 35%, El Seka El Hadid 37%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Dayrout v El Seka El HadidBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Dayrout win28%

Draw35%

El Seka El Hadid win37%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dayrout

El Seka El Hadid

7Days since last match6

Last match: 15 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

Last match: 16 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	El Seka El Hadid	9	−2	12
18	Dayrout	9	−12	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · el seka el hadid winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 17 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off

37% The market46%

Us37%

~~Market~~46%

We make El Seka El Hadid a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dayrout v El Seka El Hadid~~0.90 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 10 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 12~~18 v 10

~~The market · El Seka El Hadid win~~46% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · El Seka El Hadid win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dayrout win	28%	23%	+5
Draw	35%	31%	+4
El Seka El Hadid win	37%	46%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	31%	35%	−4
Both teams to score	40%	41%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	60%	60%	0
Over 3.5 goals	14%	17%	−3
Dayrout or draw	63%	54%	+9
Dayrout clean sheet	35%	–	–
El Seka El Hadid clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.2%

0123450 16.2 13.1 7.9 2.9 1 10.8 14.9 7.0 2.5 2 5.7 5.9 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dayrout down, El Seka El Hadid across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,537 Second League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.1% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dayrout at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). El Seka El Hadid away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Dayrout, 1.07 for El Seka El Hadid. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ELS 0–3 DAY · DAY 0–0 ELS · ELS 0–0 DAY · DAY 1–1 ELS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 10 Sept

DAYROUT

LLDDWD0–2 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–0

EL SEKA EL HADID

LWLWDD1–3 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 5–4 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Masar	9	+9	19
2	Haras El Hodood	9	+8	19
3	Pharco	9	+6	19
4	Itesalat	9	+7	18
5	Kahraba Ismailia	9	+8	17
6	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	9	+5	17
7	AL Nasr SC	9	+6	16
8	Tersana	9	+5	16
9	El Mansura	9	+1	14
10	El Seka El Hadid	9	−2	12
11	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	9	0	11
12	El Entag EL Harby	9	+2	10
13	Ismaily SC	9	−3	10
14	Team	9	−5	10
15	Tanta SC	9	−4	9
16	El Dakhleya	9	−6	9
17	Proxy	9	−7	7
18	Dayrout	9	−12	6
19	La Viena FC	9	−7	4
20	Mega Sport	9	−11	2