Baladiyyat Al Mehalla v AL Nasr SC prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Baladiyyat Al MehallaDrawAL Nasr SC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Draw 34%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 33%, draw 34%, AL Nasr SC 33%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Baladiyyat Al Mehalla v AL Nasr SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla win33%

Draw34%

AL Nasr SC win33%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueEl Mahalla Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

AL Nasr SC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	AL Nasr SC	10	+6	17
11	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	10	0	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

34% The market–

Us34%

We make the draw a 34% chance. The model expects 1.0–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Baladiyyat Al Mehalla v AL Nasr SC~~1.02 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 17 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 17~~11 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla win	33%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
AL Nasr SC win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla or draw	67%	–	–
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla clean sheet	37%	–	–
AL Nasr SC clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.6%

0123450 15.6 11.5 6.7 2.3 1 11.6 15.0 6.6 2.3 2 6.8 6.7 3.4 3 2.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Baladiyyat Al Mehalla down, AL Nasr SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,547 Second League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). AL Nasr SC away: 1.40 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Baladiyyat Al Mehalla, 1.00 for AL Nasr SC. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 17 Sept

BALADIYYAT AL MEHALLA

LDWLWD0–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

AL NASR SC

LWWDWD0–1 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Masar	10	+11	22
2	Haras El Hodood	10	+8	20
3	Itesalat	10	+7	19
4	Pharco	10	+4	19
5	Kahraba Ismailia	10	+8	18
6	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	10	+5	18
7	AL Nasr SC	10	+6	17
8	Tersana	10	+5	17
9	El Mansura	10	+2	17
10	El Seka El Hadid	10	+2	15
11	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	10	0	12
12	Team	10	−5	11
13	El Entag EL Harby	10	+1	10
14	Ismaily SC	10	−4	10
15	Tanta SC	10	−4	10
16	El Dakhleya	10	−6	10
17	Proxy	10	−7	8
18	La Viena FC	10	−6	7
19	Dayrout	10	−16	6
20	Mega Sport	10	−11	3