AL Nasr SC v El Dakhleya prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 16:01

AL Nasr SC 2–2 El Dakhleya AL NASR SC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AL Nasr SC win~~54%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.834

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.803

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AL Nasr SC win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: AL Nasr SC 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–29–18
1′KICK-OFF AL Nasr SC v El Dakhleya
33′A goal for AL Nasr SC on 32′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–14–4
33′We said AL Nasr SC at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–14–4
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' AL Nasr SC 1–0 El Dakhleya
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' AL Nasr SC win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
34′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 82–14–4
45′HALF-TIME AL Nasr SC 1–0 El Dakhleya
46′SECOND HALF AL Nasr SC 1–0 El Dakhleya
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' AL Nasr SC win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
57′AL Nasr SC score on 57′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' AL Nasr SC 2–0 El Dakhleya
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' AL Nasr SC win: 54% at kick-off, 98% now
58′We said AL Nasr SC at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
67′El Dakhleya find the net on 67′. 2–1. 2–1 · 87–12–1
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' AL Nasr SC 2–1 El Dakhleya
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' AL Nasr SC win: 54% at kick-off, 87% now
68′We said AL Nasr SC at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–1 · 87–11–1
69′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 88–11–1
74′We said AL Nasr SC at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' AL Nasr SC win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
97′A goal for El Dakhleya on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 2–97–1
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' AL Nasr SC 2–2 El Dakhleya
97′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+7' AL Nasr SC win: 54% at kick-off, 2% now
97′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+7' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was AL Nasr SC win 99%)
98′We said AL Nasr SC at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–2 · 2–97–1
FTFULL TIME AL Nasr SC 2–2 El Dakhleya
FTAL Nasr SC 2–2 El Dakhleya · AL Nasr SC win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AL Nasr SC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AL Nasr SC 54%, draw 28%, El Dakhleya 18%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on AL Nasr SC v El DakhleyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

AL Nasr SC win54%

Draw28%

El Dakhleya win18%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AL Nasr SC

El Dakhleya

7Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · the Egyptian Second League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	AL Nasr SC	9	+6	16
16	El Dakhleya	9	−6	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al nasr sc winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

54% The market50%

Us54%

~~Market~~50%

We make AL Nasr SC a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AL Nasr SC v El Dakhleya~~1.59 – 0.81

~~Form · last six in Second League this season · since 10 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 9~~7 v 16

~~The market · AL Nasr SC win~~50% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AL Nasr SC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AL Nasr SC win	54%	50%	+4
Draw	28%	29%	−1
El Dakhleya win	18%	21%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	43%	41%	+2
Both teams to score	45%	45%	0
Over 1.5 goals	70%	65%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	22%	21%	+1
AL Nasr SC or draw	82%	79%	+3
AL Nasr SC clean sheet	45%	–	–
El Dakhleya clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 11.1 5.9 3.1 1 12.8 13.0 4.7 2 11.2 8.9 3.6 3 6.0 4.7 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AL Nasr SC down, El Dakhleya across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,537 Second League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.1% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AL Nasr SC at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 4). El Dakhleya away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for AL Nasr SC, 0.81 for El Dakhleya. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALN 1–2 ELD · ELD 1–0 ALN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League this season · since 10 Sept

AL NASR SC

WLWWDW2–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

EL DAKHLEYA

LLWWLL0–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Masar	9	+9	19
2	Haras El Hodood	9	+8	19
3	Pharco	9	+6	19
4	Itesalat	9	+7	18
5	Kahraba Ismailia	9	+8	17
6	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	9	+5	17
7	AL Nasr SC	9	+6	16
8	Tersana	9	+5	16
9	El Mansura	9	+1	14
10	El Seka El Hadid	9	−2	12
11	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	9	0	11
12	El Entag EL Harby	9	+2	10
13	Ismaily SC	9	−3	10
14	Team	9	−5	10
15	Tanta SC	9	−4	9
16	El Dakhleya	9	−6	9
17	Proxy	9	−7	7
18	Dayrout	9	−12	6
19	La Viena FC	9	−7	4
20	Mega Sport	9	−11	2