Zamalek SC v El Mokawloon prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Zamalek SCDrawEl Mokawloon

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Zamalek SC 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zamalek SC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zamalek SC 54%, draw 29%, El Mokawloon 17%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Zamalek SC v El MokawloonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Zamalek SC win54%

Draw29%

El Mokawloon win17%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zamalek SC

El Mokawloon

4Days since last match9

Last match: 24 Oct · CAF Champions League

Last match: 19 Oct · the Egyptian Premier League

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Zamalek SC	7	+6	16
7	El Mokawloon	7	+4	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zamalek sc winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

54% The market47%

Us54%

~~Market~~47%

We make Zamalek SC a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zamalek SC v El Mokawloon~~1.53 – 0.76

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 26 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 11~~3 v 7

~~The market · Zamalek SC win~~47% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zamalek SC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zamalek SC win	54%	47%	+7
Draw	29%	30%	−1
El Mokawloon win	17%	23%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	40%	39%	+1
Both teams to score	43%	44%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	68%	64%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	20%	21%	−1
Zamalek SC or draw	83%	77%	+6
Zamalek SC clean sheet	47%	–	–
El Mokawloon clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 11.9 6.3 3.0 1 13.9 13.2 4.4 2 11.7 8.8 3.4 3 6.0 4.5 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zamalek SC down, El Mokawloon across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,534 Premier League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.6% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.71 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zamalek SC at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). El Mokawloon away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Zamalek SC, 0.76 for El Mokawloon. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~ZAM 0–0 ELM · ELM 2–1 ZAM · ZAM 1–1 ELM · ZAM 6–1 ELM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 26 Aug

ZAMALEK SC

WWWWLW3–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

EL MOKAWLOON

LWDWDW2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pyramids FC	7	+14	21
2	Al Ahly	7	+8	17
3	Zamalek SC	7	+6	16
4	Ceramica Cleopatra	7	+6	15
5	Future FC	7	+3	13
6	Al Ittihad	7	+3	13
7	El Mokawloon	7	+4	11
8	Masr	7	0	11
9	National Bank of Egypt	7	0	10
10	Smouha SC	7	0	10
11	Olympic El Qanah	7	0	8
12	Petrojet	7	−2	8
13	AL Masry	7	−2	8
14	Wadi Degla	7	−1	7
15	El Geish	7	−6	7
16	Asyut Petrol	7	−4	5
17	Enppi	7	−7	4
18	Ghazl El Mehalla	7	−8	4
19	Abu Qair Semad	7	−8	4
20	El Gouna FC	7	−6	2