Zamalek SC v Al Ahly prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Zamalek SC 0–2 Al Ahly AL AHLY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Ahly win~~39%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.550

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.456

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Ahly win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Ahly was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 32–27–41
3′Much as we predicted: Al Ahly was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 32–27–41
43′Mohamed Hany scores for Al Ahly on 39′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–20–73
46′Achraf Bencharki scores for Al Ahly on 39′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–20–73
47′We published Al Ahly at 39%. Our model now makes it 73%. 0–1 · 7–20–73
63′We published Al Ahly at 39%. Our model now makes it 79%. 0–1 · 3–18–79
66′We published Al Ahly at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Zamalek SC · On: Ahmed Abdel Rahim · Off: Ahmed Sherif Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Zamalek SC · On: Hossam Ashraf · Off: Mahmoud Bentayg Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Zamalek SC · On: Oday Dabbagh · Off: Ahmed Fatouh Corrected
79′⚽ GOAL · 80' Zamalek SC 0–2 Al Ahly · Monsef Bakrar
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Zamalek SC 0–2 Al Ahly · Monsef Bakrar
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Zamalek SC 0–2 Al Ahly · Monsef Bakrar
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Al Ahly · On: Hussein El Shahat · Off: Achraf Bencharki Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Al Ahly · On: Taher Mohamed · Off: Zizo Sayed Corrected
86′80′ and it is 0–2: Monsef Bakrar on the scoresheet for Al Ahly. 0–2 · 0–0–100
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Al Ahly win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Al Ahly win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Al Ahly win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Al Ahly win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Al Ahly win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Al Ahly win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Al Ahly win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Al Ahly win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Al Ahly win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Al Ahly win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Al Ahly win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Al Ahly win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Al Ahly win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Al Ahly win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Al Ahly win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Al Ahly win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Al Ahly win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Al Ahly win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
FTFULL TIME Zamalek SC 0–2 Al Ahly
FTZamalek SC 0–2 Al Ahly · Al Ahly win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Zamalek SC win31%

Draw30%

Al Ahly win39%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 18:00

VenueCairo International Stadium

Line-ups

Zamalek SC

4-2-3-1

Al Ahly

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Zamalek SC

Al Ahly

25Days since last match26

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Zamalek SC	5	+7	13
3	Al Ahly	5	+6	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Zamalek SC

4-2-3-1

37 E. M. Soliman

4 O. Gaber

24 M. Ismail

28 El Wensh Mahmoud

3 M. Bentayg

17 M. Shehata

12 A. Rabie

13 A. Fatouh

19 A. El Said

31 A. Sherif

81 C. Banza

Coach · Motamed Gamal

Substitutes

99 · M. Awad

20 · M. El Zenary

58 · M. Farag

6 · M. Gehad

55 · M. Hamad

18 · A. Kaied

98 · O. Dabbagh

7 · H. Ashraf

11 · Esho

9 · N. Mansy

Al Ahly

4-2-3-1

31 O. Shobeir

30 M. Hany

3 A. Dari

2 Y. Marei

24 T. Mohamed

13 M. Ateya

12 A. Tawfik

25 Zizo

22 E. Ashour

17 A. Bencharki

9 S. Benjdida

Coach · Hussein Ammouta

Substitutes

1 · M. El Shenawy

5 · H. Reyad

28 · K. Fouad

19 · Afsha

15 · O. El Saaiy

8 · A. Reda

7 · T. Mohamed

14 · H. El Shahat

10 · M. Bakrar

Our number · al ahly winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

39% The market45%

Us39%

~~Market~~45%

We make Al Ahly a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al ahly win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zamalek SC win	31%	25%	+5
Draw	30%	30%	0
Al Ahly win	39%	45%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	46%	44%	+2
Both teams to score	52%	50%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	68%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	25%	24%	+1
Zamalek SC or draw	61%	55%	+5
Zamalek SC clean sheet	26%	–	–
Al Ahly clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 9.8 9.3 7.3 3.4 1 7.8 14.1 8.5 3.9 2 5.5 7.3 4.9 2.3 3 2.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zamalek SC down, Al Ahly across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,514 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 3.78 goals a meeting; 8 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zamalek SC at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Al Ahly away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Zamalek SC, 1.36 for Al Ahly. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.78

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ZAM 0–3 ALA · ALA 2–1 ZAM · ZAM 3–0 ALA · ALA 1–1 ZAM

Form · last six in Premier League

ZAMALEK SC

WDWWWW1–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

AL AHLY

WWWWDW2–0 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pyramids FC	5	+8	15
2	Zamalek SC	5	+7	13
3	Al Ahly	5	+6	13
4	Ceramica Cleopatra	5	+7	12
5	Future FC	5	+3	10
6	Al Ittihad	5	+3	10
7	El Mokawloon	5	+1	7
8	Petrojet	5	0	7
9	El Geish	5	0	7
10	Masr	5	−1	7
11	Olympic El Qanah	5	0	6
12	AL Masry	5	−2	6
13	National Bank of Egypt	5	−3	6
14	Wadi Degla	5	−1	5
15	Enppi	5	−3	4
16	Smouha SC	5	−3	4
17	Abu Qair Semad	5	−7	3
18	El Gouna FC	5	−3	2
19	Asyut Petrol	5	−4	2
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	5	−8	1