Smouha SC v Ghazl El Mehalla prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 20:30

Smouha SC 1–0 Ghazl El Mehalla SMOUHA SC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Smouha SC win~~39%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.558

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.544

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Smouha SC win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Smouha SC was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–33–26
7′Much as we predicted: Smouha SC was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–34–26
36′34′ and it is 1–0: P. Badji on the scoresheet for Smouha SC. 1–0 · 78–18–5
38′We published Smouha SC at 39%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–18–4
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Smouha SC win: 39% at kick-off, 78% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Smouha SC win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
40′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 1–0 · 78–18–4
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Smouha SC win: 39% at kick-off, 35% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Smouha SC win 35%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Smouha SC win: 39% at kick-off, 78% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Smouha SC win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Smouha SC win: 39% at kick-off, 78% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Smouha SC win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Smouha SC win: 39% at kick-off, 35% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Smouha SC win 35%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Smouha SC win: 39% at kick-off, 78% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Smouha SC win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Smouha SC win: 39% at kick-off, 35% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Smouha SC win 35%)
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Smouha SC win 35%)
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Smouha SC win 35%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Smouha SC win 35%)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' P. Badji · Smouha SC
45′HALF-TIME Smouha SC 1–0 Ghazl El Mehalla
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ghazl El Mehalla · On: M. Ekbad · Off: A. Emad
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ghazl El Mehalla · On: A. Yasser · Off: M. Abdelsalam
46′SECOND HALF Smouha SC 1–0 Ghazl El Mehalla
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' M. Ragab · Smouha SC
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Smouha SC · On: A. Samadou · Off: M. Farouk
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Smouha SC · On: F. Farid · Off: P. Badji
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Smouha SC · On: G. Chukwudi · Off: Makarona
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ghazl El Mehalla · On: A. Gomaa · Off: A. Yehia
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Smouha SC · On: M. Adel · Off: A. Gamal
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' R. Arfaoui · Ghazl El Mehalla
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Smouha SC · On: C. Niyigena · Off: K. El Ghandour
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Ghazl El Mehalla · On: A. Etman · Off: A. Shika
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' K. Mohamed · Smouha SC
FTFULL TIME Smouha SC 1–0 Ghazl El Mehalla
FTSmouha SC 1–0 Ghazl El Mehalla · Smouha SC win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

Smouha SC win39%

Draw36%

Ghazl El Mehalla win25%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 18:00

VenueAlexandria Stadium

Line-ups

Smouha SC

4-1-4-1

Ghazl El Mehalla

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Smouha SC

Ghazl El Mehalla

28Days since last match26

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Smouha SC	5	−3	4
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	5	−8	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Smouha SC

4-1-4-1

28 A. Mayhoub

30 A. Gamal

24 M. Ragab

3 M. Desouki

21 A. Mohamed

66 K. Mohamed

11 M. Farouk

8 S. Fekri

10 K. El Ghandour

14 Makarona

20 P. Badji

Coach · Ahmed Abdelaziz

Substitutes

1 · H. Taimour

13 · C. Niyigena

19 · M. Adel

22 · M. Samiae

15 · A. Samadou

17 · A. El Nadry

27 · H. Balaha

23 · F. Farid

29 · G. Chukwudi

Ghazl El Mehalla

4-2-3-1

16 A. Amer

23 F. Nechat

3 A. El Aash

4 A. Shousha

12 Y. Zakaria

20 M. Toure

17 A. Shika

7 M. Ashraf

8 M. Abdelsalam

14 A. Emad

63 A. Yehia

Coach · Khaled Galal

Substitutes

25 · Koko

15 · A. Gamal

5 · A. Sheta

22 · A. Etman

9 · R. Arfaoui

10 · B. Walid

44 · A. Yasser

11 · M. Ekbad

30 · A. Gomaa

Our number · smouha sc winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

39% The market40%

Us39%

~~Market~~40%

We make Smouha SC a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · smouha sc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Smouha SC win	39%	40%	−1
Draw	36%	35%	+1
Ghazl El Mehalla win	25%	25%	0
Over 2.5 goals	27%	26%	+1
Both teams to score	35%	34%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	55%	51%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	11%	12%	−1
Smouha SC or draw	75%	75%	0
Smouha SC clean sheet	47%	–	–
Ghazl El Mehalla clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.7%

0123450 18.7 11.0 4.8 1 15.5 14.5 4.9 2 8.8 6.6 2.5 3 3.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Smouha SC down, Ghazl El Mehalla across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,516 Premier League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.8% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 1.71 goals a meeting; 1 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Smouha SC at home: 0.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ghazl El Mehalla away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Smouha SC, 0.76 for Ghazl El Mehalla. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.71

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 7

~~Both scored~~1 of 7

~~Last meetings~~GHA 0–0 SMO · GHA 1–0 SMO · SMO 2–4 GHA · GHA 0–2 SMO

Form · last six in Premier League

SMOUHA SC

LLDLLW1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0

GHAZL EL MEHALLA

WLLDLL4–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ahly	6	+8	16
2	Pyramids FC	5	+8	15
3	Zamalek SC	6	+5	13
4	Ceramica Cleopatra	5	+7	12
5	Future FC	5	+3	10
6	Al Ittihad	5	+3	10
7	El Mokawloon	5	+1	7
8	Petrojet	5	0	7
9	Olympic El Qanah	6	0	7
10	El Geish	5	0	7
11	Masr	5	−1	7
12	AL Masry	6	−2	7
13	National Bank of Egypt	5	−3	6
14	Wadi Degla	5	−1	5
15	Enppi	5	−3	4
16	Smouha SC	5	−3	4
17	Abu Qair Semad	5	−7	3
18	El Gouna FC	5	−3	2
19	Asyut Petrol	5	−4	2
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	5	−8	1