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Petrojet v Wadi Degla

Petrojet

2–2Full time

Wadi Degla

Premier League · TUE 13 OCT · Suez Stadium

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 20:46

Petrojet 2–2 Wadi Degla WADI DEGLA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wadi Degla win~~37%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.719

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.695

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wadi Degla win at 37%.
1′KICK-OFF Petrojet v Wadi Degla
2′Much as we predicted: Wadi Degla was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 34–28–38
5′Wadi Degla find the net on 6′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–20–67
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Petrojet 0–1 Wadi Degla
5′⚽ GOAL · 6' Petrojet 0–1 Wadi Degla
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Wadi Degla win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
6′We published Wadi Degla at 37%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 13–20–67
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Petrojet 1–1 Wadi Degla · Mahmoud Diasty
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Wadi Degla win: 37% at kick-off, 38% now
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Wadi Degla win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 10–21–69
32′We published Wadi Degla at 37%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
35′🟥 RED CARD · 35' Wadi Degla
36′🟥 RED CARD · 36' Mohamed Abdel Aati · Wadi Degla
37′A red card for Wadi Degla on 36′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 8–21–71
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Wadi Degla · On: Kamal Abou Elfetouh · Off: Ahmed Reda Corrected
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Petrojet 0–2 Wadi Degla · Ibrahim Mohamed El Bahnasi
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Petrojet · On: Godwin Chika Okwara · Off: Mohamed Ibrahim Corrected
45′SECOND HALF Petrojet 0–2 Wadi Degla
46′We published Wadi Degla at 37%. Our model now makes it 93%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Petrojet 0–2 Wadi Degla · Mahmoud Diasty
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Wadi Degla win: 37% at kick-off, 93% now
48′Ibrahim Mohamed El Bahnasi scores for Wadi Degla on 45′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Petrojet 0–2 Wadi Degla · Ibrahim Mohamed El Bahnasi
53′We published Wadi Degla at 37%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
58′We published Wadi Degla at 37%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–2 · 4–19–76
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Petrojet 1–2 Wadi Degla · Ibrahim Mohamed El Bahnasi
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Wadi Degla win: 37% at kick-off, 76% now
59′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–19–77
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Wadi Degla win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
60′59′ and it is 1–2: Ahmed Abdel Mawgod on the scoresheet for Petrojet. 1–2 · 4–19–77
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Petrojet 1–2 Wadi Degla · Ahmed Abdel Mawgod
61′13.0 shots for Petrojet, 8.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–2 · 4–18–78
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Petrojet · On: Karim El Deeb · Off: Badr Mousa Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Wadi Degla · On: Islam Adel · Off: Ahmed Scholes Corrected
65′We said Wadi Degla at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 2–2 · 20–57–22
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Petrojet 2–2 Wadi Degla · Ahmed Abdel Mawgod
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Wadi Degla · On: Mohamed Said · Off: Mahmoud Diasty Corrected
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Wadi Degla win: 37% at kick-off, 22% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Wadi Degla win 22%)
66′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 20–58–22
68′Petrojet ahead on 68′ through F. Kouablan. 2–2. 2–2 · 19–60–21
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Petrojet 2–2 Wadi Degla · F. Kouablan
69′Petrojet ahead on 66′ through F. Kouablan. 2–2. 2–2 · 18–62–20
69′Petrojet have had 16.0 attempts to 8.0 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 18–62–20
71′A red card for Wadi Degla on 36′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–2 · 17–64–19
72′We said Wadi Degla at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 2–2 · 17–65–18
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Wadi Degla win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Ragab El Safi · Wadi Degla
77′We said Wadi Degla at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 13–73–14
80′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Wadi Degla · On: Franck Boli · Off: Hamza Hassan Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Wadi Degla · On: Ahmed Abdin · Off: Ahmed Reda Corrected
83′We said Wadi Degla at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 8–84–9
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Wadi Degla win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Youssef Abdel-Tawab · Petrojet
86′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Ibrahim Mohamed El Bahnasi · Wadi Degla
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Ibrahim Mohamed El Bahnasi · Wadi Degla
90′We said Wadi Degla at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Petrojet 2–2 Wadi Degla
FTPetrojet 2–2 Wadi Degla · Wadi Degla win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

Petrojet win32%

Draw31%

Wadi Degla win37%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 18:00

VenueSuez Stadium

Line-ups

Petrojet

4-4-2

Wadi Degla

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Petrojet

Wadi Degla

27Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Petrojet	5	0	7
15	Wadi Degla	5	−1	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Petrojet

4-4-2

1 O. Salah

4 M. Kenawi

25 B. Haggag

40 Y. Abdeltawab

3 I. Abdallah

11 Mohamed Dodo

17 A. Hamed

8 M. Okasha

9 B. Moussa

19 M. El Badry

15 A. Bahbah

Coach · Sayed Eid

Substitutes

16 · A. Ragab

29 · A. Yassin

7 · K. El Deeb

2 · A. Bah

12 · A. Hamawy

30 · G. Chika

21 · A. Liadi

13 · F. M. Kouablan

22 · O. Diyaa

Wadi Degla

4-2-3-1

1 A. Hossam

23 A. Ayman

24 Riga

3 O. Adly

21 A. Reda

25 I. El Bahnasi

8 A. Scholes

10 M. Diasty

14 M. Abdelaati

27 A. Refaat

17 H. Hassan

Coach · Mohamed El Sheikh

Substitutes

13 · Z. Seyam

40 · A. Abdin

6 · K. Aboul-Fetouh

4 · Kanu

34 · M. Kaandorp

9 · F. Boli

22 · Zizo

11 · M. Abdelrahim

20 · Mohamed Saied Zika

Our number · wadi degla winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

37% The market36%

Us37%

~~Market~~36%

We make Wadi Degla a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · wadi degla win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 35% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Petrojet win	32%	32%	0
Draw	31%	32%	−1
Wadi Degla win	37%	36%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	43%	40%	+3
Both teams to score	50%	48%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	65%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	23%	22%	+1
Petrojet or draw	63%	64%	−1
Petrojet clean sheet	29%	–	–
Wadi Degla clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.5%

0123450 10.9 9.6 7.1 3.0 1 8.7 14.5 8.0 3.4 2 6.0 7.4 4.6 3 2.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Petrojet down, Wadi Degla across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,520 Premier League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.1% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Petrojet at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Wadi Degla away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Petrojet, 1.26 for Wadi Degla. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PET 2–2 WAD · WAD 0–1 PET

Form · last six in Premier League

PETROJET

LDLLWW1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

WADI DEGLA

WDWDLL2–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pyramids FC	6	+11	18
2	Al Ahly	6	+8	16
3	Zamalek SC	6	+5	13
4	Future FC	6	+4	13
5	Ceramica Cleopatra	6	+4	12
6	Al Ittihad	5	+3	10
7	El Mokawloon	6	+1	8
8	Masr	6	−1	8
9	Petrojet	5	0	7
10	Olympic El Qanah	6	0	7
11	El Geish	5	0	7
12	AL Masry	6	−2	7
13	Smouha SC	6	−2	7
14	National Bank of Egypt	5	−3	6
15	Wadi Degla	5	−1	5
16	Enppi	6	−4	4
17	Abu Qair Semad	5	−7	3
18	El Gouna FC	5	−3	2
19	Asyut Petrol	5	−4	2
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	6	−9	1