Olympic El Qanah v AL Masry prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Olympic El Qanah 1–1 AL Masry AL MASRY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said AL Masry win~~40%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.703

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.791

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AL Masry win at 40%.
3′Little has changed for our model: AL Masry 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 30–29–41
6′Little has changed for our model: AL Masry 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 30–30–41
19′Olympic El Qanah find the net on 11′. 0–0. 0–0 · 28–33–38
22′Olympic El Qanah find the net on 11′. 0–0. 0–0 · 28–34–38
37′Olympic El Qanah ahead on 22′ through Hazem Abosena. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–24–10
38′Olympic El Qanah ahead on 22′ through Hazem Abosena. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–24–10
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' AL Masry win: 40% at kick-off, 38% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' AL Masry win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Abderrahim Deghmoum · AL Masry
45′HALF-TIME Olympic El Qanah 1–0 AL Masry
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' AL Masry win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Olympic El Qanah win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was AL Masry win 10%)
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AL Masry · On: Salah Mohsen · Off: Mounder Temine Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AL Masry · On: Ali Sulieman · Off: Hussein Faisal Corrected
46′SECOND HALF Olympic El Qanah 1–0 AL Masry
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Hassan Ali · AL Masry
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Olympic El Qanah · On: Hossam Greisha · Off: Mahmoud Hany Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' AL Masry · On: Mostafa Al Aash · Off: Mohamed Hashem Corrected
73′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Mohab Samy · Olympic El Qanah
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Olympic El Qanah 1–1 AL Masry · Hazem Abosena
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Olympic El Qanah 1–1 AL Masry · Salah Mohsen
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Olympic El Qanah · On: Mohamed Hassan · Off: mawuli wayo Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Olympic El Qanah · On: Mohamed Hozian · Off: Mohab Samy Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Olympic El Qanah · On: Ahmed Ali Amer · Off: Mohamed Sadek Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' AL Masry · On: Mahmoud Hamada · Off: Hassan Ali Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' AL Masry · On: Mohamed El Shamy · Off: Abderrahim Deghmoum Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 97' Mostafa Al Aash · AL Masry
FTFULL TIME Olympic El Qanah 1–1 AL Masry
FTOlympic El Qanah 1–1 AL Masry · AL Masry win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Olympic El Qanah win28%

Draw32%

AL Masry win40%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueSuez Canal Stadium

Line-ups

Olympic El Qanah

AL Masry

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Olympic El Qanah

AL Masry

24Days since last match26

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Olympic El Qanah	5	0	6
12	AL Masry	5	−2	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Olympic El Qanah

Formation not confirmed

16 M. Shaaban

30 O. Fathy

5 I. Samy

19 M. El Shebiny

15 M. Samy

20 H. Ibrahim

8 M. Harsha

18 M. Wayo

33 M. Sadek

10 M. Hany

9 H. A. Sattar

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Mahmoud

13 · M. Hany Treka

24 · M. Diab

6 · M. Rady

27 · A. Ali

22 · M. Antar

25 · M. Hamada

7 · H. El Azm

40 · I. El Sayed

AL Masry

4-2-3-1

16 M. Hamdy

7 K. El Eraki

2 B. El Mohamady

29 M. Hashem

3 M. Shokry

6 M. Makhlouf

8 H. Ali

30 A. Deghmoum

32 H. Faisal

27 A. Ziani

25 M. Temine

Coach · Ahmed Samy

Substitutes

1 · E. Tharwat

33 · M. El Aash

14 · M. Hamada

17 · Y. El Gohary

20 · K. Toual

9 · S. Mohsen

15 · A. El Armouty

11 · M. El Shami

21 · A. Sulieman

Our number · al masry winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

40% The market49%

Us40%

~~Market~~49%

We make AL Masry a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al masry win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olympic El Qanah win	28%	21%	+7
Draw	32%	29%	+3
AL Masry win	40%	49%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	39%	41%	−2
Both teams to score	46%	45%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	67%	66%	0
Over 3.5 goals	19%	21%	−2
Olympic El Qanah or draw	60%	51%	+10
Olympic El Qanah clean sheet	30%	–	–
AL Masry clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.5%

0123450 12.7 11.5 8.1 3.4 1 9.1 14.5 7.9 3.3 2 5.4 6.5 4.0 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olympic El Qanah down, AL Masry across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,514 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Olympic El Qanah at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). AL Masry away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Olympic El Qanah, 1.23 for AL Masry. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Premier League

OLYMPIC EL QANAH

WDDDL2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

AL MASRY

LWWLLL0–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pyramids FC	5	+8	15
2	Zamalek SC	5	+7	13
3	Al Ahly	5	+6	13
4	Ceramica Cleopatra	5	+7	12
5	Future FC	5	+3	10
6	Al Ittihad	5	+3	10
7	El Mokawloon	5	+1	7
8	Petrojet	5	0	7
9	El Geish	5	0	7
10	Masr	5	−1	7
11	Olympic El Qanah	5	0	6
12	AL Masry	5	−2	6
13	National Bank of Egypt	5	−3	6
14	Wadi Degla	5	−1	5
15	Enppi	5	−3	4
16	Smouha SC	5	−3	4
17	Abu Qair Semad	5	−7	3
18	El Gouna FC	5	−3	2
19	Asyut Petrol	5	−4	2
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	5	−8	1