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National Bank of Egypt v El Geish

National Bank of Egypt

3–0Full time

El Geish

Premier League · TUE 13 OCT · Stadium National Bank of Egypt

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:57

National Bank of Egypt 3–0 El Geish NATIONAL BANK OF EGYPT WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said National Bank of Egypt win~~43%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.487

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.419

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said National Bank of Egypt win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: National Bank of Egypt was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–30–25
1′KICK-OFF National Bank of Egypt v El Geish
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' National Bank of Egypt 1–0 El Geish
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' National Bank of Egypt 1–0 El Geish · Anderson Santos
6′Anderson Santos scores for National Bank of Egypt on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–8
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' National Bank of Egypt win: 43% at kick-off, 75% now
9′We published National Bank of Egypt at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–7
11′SUBSTITUTION · 11' El Geish · On: Khaled Sotohi · Off: Amro Tarek Corrected
24′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Gomaa Mashour · El Geish
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–5
45′SECOND HALF National Bank of Egypt 1–0 El Geish
46′We published National Bank of Egypt at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Ahmed Tarek · El Geish
49′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Ahmed Tarek · El Geish
59′13.0 shots for El Geish, 4.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–0 · 83–15–2
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' National Bank of Egypt win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' National Bank of Egypt · On: Mostafa Shalaby · Off: Anderson Santos Corrected
64′PENALTY MISSED · 64' Mohamed Atef · El Geish
66′64′ and it is 1–0: Mohamed Atef on the scoresheet for El Geish. 1–0 · 85–13–2
68′We published National Bank of Egypt at 43%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–13–1
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' National Bank of Egypt · On: Salah Abd Etouab Bouchama · Off: Mohamed Naser Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' National Bank of Egypt · On: Mohamed Ashraf Ben Sharqi · Off: Karim Hamed Corrected
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' National Bank of Egypt 2–0 El Geish · Anderson Santos
72′⚽ GOAL · 73' National Bank of Egypt 2–0 El Geish · Salah Abd Etouab Bouchama
73′National Bank of Egypt ahead on 73′ through Salah Abd Etouab Bouchama. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' National Bank of Egypt win: 43% at kick-off, 99% now
76′We published National Bank of Egypt at 43%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' El Geish · On: Komlavi Komi · Off: Walid Benbella Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' El Geish · On: Komlavi Komi · Off: Ahmed Abdel Rahman Zola Corrected
78′We published National Bank of Egypt at 43%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
80′El Geish have had 16.0 attempts to 6.0 and it is still 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′SUBSTITUTION · 76' El Geish · On: Khaled Abo Ziada · Off: Karim Tarek Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' National Bank of Egypt · On: Khaled Sayed Abdelshafi · Off: Mohamed Nasr Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' National Bank of Egypt · On: Yaw Annor · Off: Ahmed Yasser Rayan Corrected
88′🟥 RED CARD · 89' Khaled Sotohi · El Geish
90′A red card for El Geish on 89′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′21.0 shots for El Geish, 7.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–0 · 100–0–0
94′Khaled Sayed Abdelshafi scores for National Bank of Egypt on 90′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' National Bank of Egypt 3–0 El Geish · Salah Abd Etouab Bouchama
94′🟥 RED CARD · 94' Khaled Sotohi · El Geish
94′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Amro Tarek · El Geish
94′⚽ GOAL · 95' National Bank of Egypt 3–0 El Geish · Khaled Sayed Abdelshafi
FTFULL TIME National Bank of Egypt 3–0 El Geish
FTNational Bank of Egypt 3–0 El Geish · National Bank of Egypt win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

National Bank of Egypt win43%

Draw33%

El Geish win24%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 15:00

VenueStadium National Bank of Egypt

Line-ups

National Bank of Egypt

4-1-4-1

El Geish

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

National Bank of Egypt

El Geish

29Days since last match29

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	El Geish	5	0	7
14	National Bank of Egypt	5	−3	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

National Bank of Egypt

4-1-4-1

27 A. El Balouti

2 M. Nasr

20 A. Medhat

6 M. El Gazzar

12 A. Meteb

17 M. Naser

7 Hisham Saleh

14 A. Hamdi

22 Anderson Ceara

18 K. Hamed

29 A. Rayan

Coach · Ayman El Ramadi

Substitutes

1 · Ahmed Sobhi

24 · M. Dowidar

13 · Shefo

19 · S. Bouchama

25 · Bencharki

10 · S. Abdallah

30 · Y. Annor

11 · M. Shalaby

70 · M. Reda

El Geish

4-4-2

1 O. Radwan

8 A. Zola

24 El Zoughbi

4 M. Camacho

3 A. Tarek

30 M. Atef

25 A. Tarek

17 W. Benbella

11 K. Tarek

12 I. Mohareb

33 A. Abdelaziz

Coach · Gomaa Mashhour

Substitutes

18 · E. El Sayed

2 · M. Mahmoud

6 · K. Sotohi

21 · Khaled Ramadan

22 · M. El Khawaga

13 · K. Komlavi

7 · Riga

28 · I. Ouro-Agoro

10 · M. Hany

Our number · national bank of egypt winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

43% The market47%

Us43%

~~Market~~47%

We make National Bank of Egypt a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · national bank of egypt win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
National Bank of Egypt win	43%	47%	−4
Draw	33%	30%	+3
El Geish win	24%	22%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	33%	40%	−7
Both teams to score	41%	44%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	62%	64%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	15%	21%	−6
National Bank of Egypt or draw	76%	78%	−1
National Bank of Egypt clean sheet	44%	–	–
El Geish clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.1%

0123450 15.1 9.2 4.5 1 14.2 14.6 5.3 2 9.5 7.7 3.2 3 3.9 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+National Bank of Egypt down, El Geish across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,520 Premier League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.1% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 1.78 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

National Bank of Egypt at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). El Geish away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for National Bank of Egypt, 0.82 for El Geish. Most likely score 0–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 14:44. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.78

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ELG 1–0 NAT · NAT 0–0 ELG · ELG 2–2 NAT · NAT 0–1 ELG

Form · last six in Premier League

NATIONAL BANK OF EGYPT

DLLWWL2–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–2

EL GEISH

LWWLDL0–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pyramids FC	6	+11	18
2	Al Ahly	6	+8	16
3	Zamalek SC	6	+5	13
4	Future FC	6	+4	13
5	Ceramica Cleopatra	6	+4	12
6	Al Ittihad	5	+3	10
7	El Mokawloon	6	+1	8
8	Masr	6	−1	8
9	Petrojet	5	0	7
10	Olympic El Qanah	6	0	7
11	El Geish	5	0	7
12	AL Masry	6	−2	7
13	Smouha SC	6	−2	7
14	National Bank of Egypt	5	−3	6
15	Wadi Degla	5	−1	5
16	Enppi	6	−4	4
17	Abu Qair Semad	5	−7	3
18	El Gouna FC	5	−3	2
19	Asyut Petrol	5	−4	2
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	6	−9	1