Masr v Future FC prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 17:31

Masr 3–2 Future FC MASR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Masr win~~39%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.563

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.579

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Masr win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Masr was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–34–27
1′KICK-OFF Masr v Future FC
13′We said Masr at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Masr 0–1 Future FC
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Masr win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Future FC win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Masr win 37%)
14′13′: Mahmoud Mamdouh on the scoresheet for Future FC, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–23–63
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 11–23–66
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Masr 1–1 Future FC
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Masr win: 39% at kick-off, 33% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Future FC win 67%)
36′Masr level it on 35′ through Rafaat Khalil. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–43–24
40′We published Masr at 39%. Our model now makes it 76%. 2–1 · 76–18–5
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Masr 2–1 Future FC
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Masr win: 39% at kick-off, 76% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Masr win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 45%)
41′Ahmed Elkalamawy scores for Masr on 40′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 77–18–5
42′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 77–18–5
45′HALF-TIME Masr 2–1 Future FC
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Future FC · On: Walid Mostafa · Off: Adem Redjem
46′SECOND HALF Masr 2–1 Future FC
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Future FC · On: Ahmed Youssef · Off: Kamel Ahmed Kaboria
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+5' Masr win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
55′We published Masr at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Future FC · On: Arnold Eba · Off: Mohamed Mossad Mohamed
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Future FC · On: Zaazaa ali · Off: Khaled Reda
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Masr · On: Mostafa Saad Abdallah Sayed · Off: Abdelrahman Hassan El Banouby
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Abdallah Bakri · Masr
68′We published Masr at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Future FC · On: Michael Ephson · Off: Ghanam Mohamed
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Masr win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Masr · On: Tarek Alaa · Off: Marwan Mohamed Marzouk
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Masr · On: Maata Magassa · Off: Mahmoud Ali Sayed Elaraby
77′We published Masr at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
84′We published Masr at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
85′We said Masr at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 2–2 · 6–89–5
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Masr 2–2 Future FC
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Masr win: 39% at kick-off, 6% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Masr win 95%)
86′85′: Mahmoud Mamdouh on the scoresheet for Future FC, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 6–90–5
86′4 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 6–90–5
89′We said Masr at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–3
91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Masr · On: Ahmed Atef · Off: Mohamed Hussein
91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Masr · On: Mohamed Ibrahim · Off: Mahmoud Nabil
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Moussa Mohamed Abdelsadek · Masr
95′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 99–1–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Masr 3–2 Future FC
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+5' Masr win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Masr win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 98%)
96′Masr ahead on 90′ through Ahmed Atef. 3–2. 3–2 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Masr 3–2 Future FC
FTMasr 3–2 Future FC · Masr win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Masr are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Masr 39%, draw 34%, Future FC 27%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Masr v Future FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Masr win39%

Draw34%

Future FC win27%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

Line-ups

Masr

5-4-1

Future FC

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Masr

Future FC

4Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

Last match: 12 Oct · the Egyptian Premier League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Future FC	6	+4	13
11	Masr	6	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Masr

5-4-1

1 Aly Lotfy

40 Marwan Mohamed Marzouk

2 Mohamed Hussein

3 Abdallah Bakri

34 M. Mohamed

15 Sameh Ibrahim

11 Abdelrahman El Banouby

22 Mahmoud Nabil

74 Mahmoud Sayed okaa

14 Ahmed Elkalamawy

7 Rafaat Khalil

Coach · Mohamed Shawky

Substitutes

19 · Mohamed Ezz

10 · Mostafa Saad

32 · Abdallah Bostangy

23 · T. Alaa

72 · Marwane Hajij

33 · Mohamed Ibrahim

37 · M. Magassa

16 · M. Mazzika

9 · Ahmed Atef

Future FC

5-3-2

99 Mostafa Makhlouf

77 Ali Fawzi

3 Mohamed Ahmed Sharkia

4 Khaled Reda

20 M. Halawani

7 Adem Redjem

19 Mohamed Mossad

8 Mohamed Sabry

98 K. A. Kaboria

27 Ghanam Mohamed

9 Mahmoud Mamdouh

Coach · A. Benhachem

Substitutes

2 · Karim Yehia

11 · Walid Mostafa

5 · Tarek Taha

22 · Ali Zaazaa

90 · Mohamed Gharib

29 · M. Ephson

18 · Mahmoud El Zonfoly

38 · A. Eba

12 · Ahmed Youssef

Our number · masr winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

39% The market38%

Us39%

~~Market~~38%

We make Masr a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Masr v Future FC~~1.12 – 0.89

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 13~~11 v 4

~~The market · Masr win~~38% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Masr win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Masr win	39%	38%	+1
Draw	34%	33%	+1
Future FC win	27%	29%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	33%	36%	−3
Both teams to score	41%	43%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	61%	61%	0
Over 3.5 goals	15%	18%	−3
Masr or draw	73%	71%	+2
Masr clean sheet	41%	–	–
Future FC clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.3%

0123450 15.3 10.2 5.4 1 13.2 14.9 5.9 2 8.3 7.4 3.3 3 3.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Masr down, Future FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,527 Premier League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.5% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.29 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Masr at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Future FC away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Masr, 0.89 for Future FC. Most likely score 0–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 20 Oct 14:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.29

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~FUT 1–3 MAS · MAS 2–0 FUT · MAS 2–2 FUT · FUT 0–0 MAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 21 Aug

MASR

DLWLWD0–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

FUTURE FC

DWLWWW1–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pyramids FC	6	+11	18
2	Al Ahly	6	+8	16
3	Zamalek SC	6	+5	13
4	Future FC	6	+4	13
5	Al Ittihad	6	+4	13
6	Ceramica Cleopatra	6	+4	12
7	El Mokawloon	7	+4	11
8	Smouha SC	7	0	10
9	National Bank of Egypt	6	0	9
10	Petrojet	6	0	8
11	Masr	6	−1	8
12	AL Masry	7	−2	8
13	Olympic El Qanah	6	0	7
14	El Geish	6	−3	7
15	Wadi Degla	6	−1	6
16	Asyut Petrol	6	−3	5
17	Enppi	7	−7	4
18	Abu Qair Semad	7	−8	4
19	El Gouna FC	7	−6	2
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	6	−9	1