Ghazl El Mehalla v Al Ittihad prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 17:31

Ghazl El Mehalla 2–1 Al Ittihad DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~36%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.742

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.709

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 30–36–34
1′KICK-OFF Ghazl El Mehalla v Al Ittihad
4′🟨 YELLOW · 2' Momen Awad · Al Ittihad
32′We said the draw at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 70–22–8
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Ghazl El Mehalla 1–0 Al Ittihad
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 22% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Ghazl El Mehalla win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 44%)
33′The goal count is tracking the 1.8 we expected. 1–0 · 70–22–8
33′Ashraf Fattah Abdel Sheta scores for Ghazl El Mehalla on 31′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–22–8
45′HALF-TIME Ghazl El Mehalla 2–0 Al Ittihad
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Ittihad · On: Pascal Phiri · Off: Joseph Arumala
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Ittihad · On: Mahmoud Emad · Off: Mohamed Fakhri
46′SECOND HALF Ghazl El Mehalla 2–0 Al Ittihad
47′We said the draw at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
47′3 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 74–20–5
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Ghazl El Mehalla 2–0 Al Ittihad
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 5% now
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Ghazl El Mehalla 2–1 Al Ittihad
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 20% now
48′45′: Amr Gomaa on the scoresheet for Ghazl El Mehalla, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–5–1 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
48′Al Ittihad pull one back on 47′ through Hossam Hassan. 2–1. 2–1 · 74–20–5
50′We said the draw at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 95–4–1 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
54′We said the draw at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–1 · 76–19–4
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Ghazl El Mehalla · On: Abdel Kader Yehia · Off: Mohamed Salem Ekbad
65′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Ahmed Yasser · Ghazl El Mehalla
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ghazl El Mehalla · On: Abdel Rahman Emad · Off: Amr Gomaa
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ghazl El Mehalla · On: Rached Arfaoui · Off: Ahmed Yasser
70′We said the draw at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–1 · 84–14–2
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al Ittihad · On: Youssry Wahid · Off: Nour Alaa
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al Ittihad · On: John Okoye Ebuka · Off: Mohamed Toni
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Ashraf Fattah Abdel Sheta · Ghazl El Mehalla
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Ghazl El Mehalla · On: Moaz Abdel Salam · Off: Ahmed Etman Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Ghazl El Mehalla · On: Ahmed Shousha · Off: Yehia Zakaria Corrected
FTFULL TIME Ghazl El Mehalla 2–1 Al Ittihad
FTGhazl El Mehalla 2–1 Al Ittihad · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Ghazl El Mehalla 30%, draw 36%, Al Ittihad 34%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Ghazl El Mehalla v Al IttihadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Ghazl El Mehalla win30%

Draw36%

Al Ittihad win34%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueGhazl El Mahalla Stadium

Line-ups

Ghazl El Mehalla

4-2-3-1

Al Ittihad

4-3-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ghazl El Mehalla

Al Ittihad

9Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · the Egyptian Premier League

Last match: 13 Oct · the Egyptian Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al Ittihad	6	+4	13
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	6	−9	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ghazl El Mehalla

4-2-3-1

16 Amer Amer

23 F. Nechat Djabri

3 Ahmed El Aash

5 Abdel Fattah Sheta

12 Yehia Zakaria

20 M. Touré

17 Abdel Rahman Osama

22 Ahmed Etman

44 A. Yasser

30 Amr Gomaa

11 Mohamed Salem Ekbad

Coach · Khaled Galal

Substitutes

15 · Ahmed Gamal

4 · Ahmed Shousha

25 · Mohamed Koko

63 · Abdel Kader Yehia

39 · A. Emad

14 · Abdel Rahman Emad

8 · Moaz Abdel Salam

9 · R. Arfaoui

99 · Hazem Mohamed

Al Ittihad

4-3-2-1

1 Sobhi Soliman

24 Momen Awad

7 Mohamed Mostafa Mido

5 Mostafa Ibrahim

30 K. Mosaad

14 Mohamed Fakhry

23 I. Saviour

8 Mohamed Toni

80 Joseph Arumala

22 Nour Alaa

10 Hossam Hassan

Coach · Hamza El Gamal

Substitutes

44 · K. Semakula

35 · Pascal Phiri

20 · Mazen Osama

18 · J. Ebuka

21 · Ahmed Hamdi

25 · Mahmoud Emad

16 · Ahmed El Arabi

4 · Islam Abdallah

11 · Youssry Wahid

Our number · drawFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

36% The market35%

Us36%

~~Market~~35%

We make the draw a 36% chance. The market has it at 35%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ghazl El Mehalla v Al Ittihad~~0.87 – 0.96

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 21 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 13~~20 v 4

~~The market · Draw~~35% · ours 36%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ghazl El Mehalla win	30%	31%	−1
Draw	36%	35%	+1
Al Ittihad win	34%	34%	0
Over 2.5 goals	28%	28%	0
Both teams to score	37%	37%	0
Over 1.5 goals	56%	53%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	11%	14%	−3
Ghazl El Mehalla or draw	66%	66%	0
Ghazl El Mehalla clean sheet	39%	–	–
Al Ittihad clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.0%

0123450 18.0 13.6 7.4 2.4 1 12.2 15.0 6.3 2.0 2 6.1 5.8 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ghazl El Mehalla down, Al Ittihad across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,531 Premier League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.3% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ghazl El Mehalla at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Al Ittihad away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.87 goals for Ghazl El Mehalla, 0.96 for Al Ittihad. Most likely score 0–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 21 Oct 14:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~1 of 8

~~Last meetings~~GHA 1–0 ALI · ALI 2–0 GHA · ALI 0–0 GHA · GHA 0–0 ALI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 21 Aug

GHAZL EL MEHALLA

LLDLLL0–3 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–1

AL ITTIHAD

DLWWWW0–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pyramids FC	7	+14	21
2	Al Ahly	6	+8	16
3	Zamalek SC	7	+6	16
4	Al Ittihad	6	+4	13
5	Future FC	7	+3	13
6	Ceramica Cleopatra	6	+4	12
7	El Mokawloon	7	+4	11
8	Masr	7	0	11
9	National Bank of Egypt	7	0	10
10	Smouha SC	7	0	10
11	Petrojet	6	0	8
12	AL Masry	7	−2	8
13	Olympic El Qanah	6	0	7
14	Wadi Degla	7	−1	7
15	El Geish	7	−6	7
16	Asyut Petrol	7	−4	5
17	Enppi	7	−7	4
18	Abu Qair Semad	7	−8	4
19	El Gouna FC	7	−6	2
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	6	−9	1