Enppi v El Mokawloon prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:30

Enppi 0–3 El Mokawloon ENPPI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Enppi win~~38%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.760

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.665

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Enppi win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Enppi 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–34–29
1′KICK-OFF Enppi v El Mokawloon
5′We said Enppi at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–22–63
5′El Mokawloon find the net on 4′. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–22–63
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Enppi 0–1 El Mokawloon
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Enppi win: 38% at kick-off, 16% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' El Mokawloon win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Enppi win 37%)
6′El Mokawloon find the net on 5′. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–22–63
7′GOAL DISALLOWED · 7' El Mokawloon
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Enppi win: 38% at kick-off, 37% now
11′El Mokawloon find the net on 11′. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–22–63
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Enppi 0–1 El Mokawloon
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Enppi win: 38% at kick-off, 15% now
12′We said Enppi at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 11–23–67
36′We said Enppi at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Enppi win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
45′HALF-TIME Enppi 0–1 El Mokawloon
46′SECOND HALF Enppi 0–1 El Mokawloon
51′SUBSTITUTION · 50' El Mokawloon · On: Mohamed Gaber · Off: Omar Kamal
56′We said Enppi at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Enppi 0–2 El Mokawloon
57′Idrissa Thiam scores for El Mokawloon on 56′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Mohamed Ammar · El Mokawloon
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' El Mokawloon · On: Omar El Wahsh · Off: Anas Baniowda
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' El Mokawloon · On: Mohamed Abdelnasser · Off: J. Ojera
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Enppi · On: Ali Ehab · Off: Mahmoud Kahraba
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Enppi · On: Hossam Gahnem · Off: Mohamed Essam
75′Enppi have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Enppi · On: Ahmed Mahmoud · Off: M. Sharkia
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Enppi · On: Ammar Hamdy · Off: Emad Mayhoub
81′12 shots for Enppi, 4 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
83′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' El Mokawloon · On: Shady Hussein · Off: Idrissa Thiam
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' El Mokawloon · On: Sherif Reda · Off: Khaled Abdel Fattah
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Enppi 0–3 El Mokawloon
84′83′: Shady Hussein on the scoresheet for El Mokawloon, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
85′82′: Shady Hussein on the scoresheet for El Mokawloon, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Enppi · On: Suleiman Garba · Off: Mohamed El Nahass
FTFULL TIME Enppi 0–3 El Mokawloon
FTEnppi 0–3 El Mokawloon · Enppi win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Enppi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Enppi 38%, draw 33%, El Mokawloon 29%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Enppi v El MokawloonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Enppi win38%

Draw33%

El Mokawloon win29%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenuePetro Sport Stadium

Line-ups

Enppi

4-2-3-1

El Mokawloon

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Enppi

El Mokawloon

7Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · the Egyptian Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	El Mokawloon	6	+1	8
17	Enppi	6	−4	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Enppi

4-2-3-1

1 Abdel Rahman Samir

25 Sayed Said

36 M. Sharkia

4 Ahmed Khalil Kalousha

47 Mohamed Hamdy

6 Zeyad Kamal

14 Emad Mayhoub

11 Mohamed Sherif

10 Kahraba

30 Mohamed Essam

9 Mohamed El Nahass

Coach · Mohamed Barakat

Substitutes

35 · Ousseynou Bodian

31 · Ahmed Mahmoud

74 · Youssef Mohamed Abdel Wahed

19 · Ali Ehab

5 · Seif Elkhashab

39 · Suleiman Garba

18 · Hossam Gahnem

17 · Ammar Hamdy

16 · Reda El Sayed

El Mokawloon

4-2-3-1

18 Mohamed Fawzi

27 Khaled Abdel Fattah

4 Hassan Hussein

5 Mohamed Ammar

23 J. Ochaya

14 Mostafa Gamal

6 D. Dokou

25 Joackiam Ojera

7 Anas Baniowda

29 Omar Kamal

92 Idrissa Thiam

Coach · Samy Komsan

Substitutes

1 · Mahmoud Abou El Saoud

12 · Omar El Wahsh

22 · Mido Gaber

99 · Shady Hussein

21 · Sherif Reda

19 · A. Aouled Behi

74 · Mohamed Abdelnasser

8 · Ahmed Fouad

2 · Youssef Ahmed Ramadan

Our number · enppi winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

38% The market34%

Us38%

~~Market~~34%

We make Enppi a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Enppi v El Mokawloon~~1.13 – 0.95

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 8~~17 v 8

~~The market · Enppi win~~34% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Enppi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 32% to 34% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Enppi win	38%	34%	+4
Draw	33%	32%	+1
El Mokawloon win	29%	33%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	35%	39%	−4
Both teams to score	43%	47%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	63%	64%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	16%	21%	−5
Enppi or draw	71%	67%	+4
Enppi clean sheet	39%	–	–
El Mokawloon clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 15.0%

0123450 14.4 10.2 5.7 1 12.3 15.0 6.3 2.0 2 7.9 7.4 3.6 3 3.0 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Enppi down, El Mokawloon across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,524 Premier League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.11 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Enppi at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). El Mokawloon away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Enppi, 0.95 for El Mokawloon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.11

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ENP 1–2 ELM · ENP 1–0 ELM · ELM 1–1 ENP · ENP 2–2 ELM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug

ENPPI

LLDWLL2–3 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–3

EL MOKAWLOON

LLWDWD0–1 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pyramids FC	6	+11	18
2	Al Ahly	6	+8	16
3	Zamalek SC	6	+5	13
4	Future FC	6	+4	13
5	Al Ittihad	6	+4	13
6	Ceramica Cleopatra	6	+4	12
7	National Bank of Egypt	6	0	9
8	El Mokawloon	6	+1	8
9	Petrojet	6	0	8
10	Masr	6	−1	8
11	Olympic El Qanah	6	0	7
12	AL Masry	6	−2	7
13	Smouha SC	6	−2	7
14	El Geish	6	−3	7
15	Wadi Degla	6	−1	6
16	Asyut Petrol	6	−3	5
17	Enppi	6	−4	4
18	Abu Qair Semad	6	−8	3
19	El Gouna FC	6	−4	2
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	6	−9	1