El Mokawloon v Masr prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 18:01

El Mokawloon 1–1 Masr MASR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Masr win~~37%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.661

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.667

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Masr win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Masr 37% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 30–31–39
4′Little has changed for our model: Masr 37% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 30–31–39
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Masr win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Draw 31%)
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Masr win 33%)
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Masr win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Draw 31%)
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Masr win 33%)
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Masr win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Draw 31%)
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Masr win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Draw 31%)
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Masr win 32%)
38′🟨 YELLOW · 35' M. Hamed · El Mokawloon
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Masr win 32%)
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Masr win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Draw 31%)
39′🟨 YELLOW · 35' M. Hamed · El Mokawloon
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Masr win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Draw 31%)
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Masr win 32%)
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Masr win 32%)
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Masr win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Draw 31%)
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Masr win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME El Mokawloon 0–0 Masr
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' El Mokawloon · On: M. Abdelnasser · Off: D. Dodo
46′SECOND HALF El Mokawloon 0–0 Masr
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' El Mokawloon 1–0 Masr · A. Baniouwda
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Masr · On: M. Hajij · Off: Abdelrahman El Sakran
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Masr · On: M. Ibrahim · Off: M. Hussein Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Masr · On: R. Khalil · Off: A. Atef
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' El Mokawloon · On: O. Kamal · Off: A. Ouled Behi
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' El Mokawloon · On: J. Ojera · Off: A. Baniouwda
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' M. Hamed · El Mokawloon
80′🟥 RED CARD · 79' M. Hamed · El Mokawloon
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' El Mokawloon · On: Y. Safina · Off: I. Thiam
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Masr · On: Messi · Off: M. Ezz
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' R. Khalil · Masr
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' El Mokawloon 1–1 Masr · Messi
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' M. Rabia · Masr
90′🟥 RED CARD · 95' M. Rabia · Masr
FTFULL TIME El Mokawloon 1–1 Masr
FTEl Mokawloon 1–1 Masr · Masr win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 15:02 · locked at kick-off

El Mokawloon win29%

Draw34%

Masr win37%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 15:00

VenueArab Contractors Stadium

Line-ups

El Mokawloon

4-2-3-1

Masr

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

El Mokawloon

Masr

27Days since last match25

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	El Mokawloon	5	+1	7
11	Masr	5	−1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

El Mokawloon

4-2-3-1

18 M. Fawzi

26 Kahraba

4 H. Shakoush

3 M. Hamed

23 J. Ochaya

6 D. Dodo

12 O. El Wahsh

7 A. Baniouwda

14 M. Gamal

19 A. Ouled Behi

92 I. Thiam

Coach · Samy Komsan

Substitutes

1 · M. Aboul-Saoud

29 · O. Kamal

27 · K. Abdelfattah

2 · Y. Safina

74 · M. Abdelnasser

8 · A. Fouad

28 · I. Adel

22 · M. Gaber

25 · J. Ojera

Masr

5-3-2

1 A. Lotfi

23 T. Alaa

3 A. Bakri

34 M. Mohamed

26 M. Rabia

73 W. Nabhan

10 M. Saad

19 M. Ezz

74 Mahmoud Sayed Okaa

9 A. Atef

11 Abdelrahman El Sakran

Coach · Mohamed Shawky

Substitutes

16 · M. Mazzika

15 · S. Ibrahim

2 · M. Hussein

33 · M. Ibrahim

22 · M. Bolbol

14 · Messi

7 · R. Khalil

72 · M. Hajij

40 · M. M. Marzouk

Our number · masr winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

37% The market37%

Us37%

~~Market~~37%

We make Masr a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · masr win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 37% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
El Mokawloon win	29%	30%	−1
Draw	34%	33%	0
Masr win	37%	37%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	33%	34%	0
Both teams to score	42%	43%	0
Over 1.5 goals	62%	59%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	15%	17%	−2
El Mokawloon or draw	63%	63%	−1
El Mokawloon clean sheet	33%	–	–
Masr clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 15.0%

0123450 15.0 12.6 7.9 2.9 1 10.4 15.0 7.3 2.7 2 5.7 6.2 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+El Mokawloon down, Masr across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,516 Premier League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.8% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

El Mokawloon at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Masr away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for El Mokawloon, 1.10 for Masr. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 15:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MAS 0–0 ELM · ELM 0–2 MAS · MAS 0–1 ELM · ELM 3–3 MAS

Form · last six in Premier League

EL MOKAWLOON

WLLWDW3–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

MASR

DDLWLW1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ahly	6	+8	16
2	Pyramids FC	5	+8	15
3	Zamalek SC	6	+5	13
4	Ceramica Cleopatra	5	+7	12
5	Future FC	5	+3	10
6	Al Ittihad	5	+3	10
7	El Mokawloon	5	+1	7
8	Petrojet	5	0	7
9	Olympic El Qanah	6	0	7
10	El Geish	5	0	7
11	Masr	5	−1	7
12	AL Masry	6	−2	7
13	National Bank of Egypt	5	−3	6
14	Wadi Degla	5	−1	5
15	Enppi	5	−3	4
16	Smouha SC	5	−3	4
17	Abu Qair Semad	5	−7	3
18	El Gouna FC	5	−3	2
19	Asyut Petrol	5	−4	2
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	5	−8	1