El Geish v Pyramids FC prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 20:31

El Geish 1–4 Pyramids FC PYRAMIDS FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pyramids FC win~~59%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.261

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.184

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pyramids FC win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Pyramids FC was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 13–28–59
1′KICK-OFF El Geish v Pyramids FC
7′Pyramids FC find the net on 6′. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–10–86
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' El Geish 0–1 Pyramids FC
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Pyramids FC win: 59% at kick-off, 86% now
8′We published Pyramids FC at 59%. Our model now makes it 86%. 0–1 · 4–10–86
16′Mostafa Zico scores for Pyramids FC on 15′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–3–97
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' El Geish 0–2 Pyramids FC · Mostafa Zico
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Pyramids FC win: 59% at kick-off, 97% now
17′We published Pyramids FC at 59%. Our model now makes it 97%. 0–2 · 1–3–97
29′SUBSTITUTION · 28' El Geish · On: I. Ouro-Agoro · Off: Walid Benbella
34′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 3–11–86
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' El Geish 1–2 Pyramids FC
35′34′: Ahmed Tarek on the scoresheet for El Geish, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 3–11–86
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Mohamed Atef · El Geish
43′Youssef Obama scores for Pyramids FC on 41′. 1–2 · 2–11–86
44′Ahmed Tarek scores for El Geish on 34′. 1–2 · 2–11–86
45′HALF-TIME El Geish 1–2 Pyramids FC
46′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45+1' Youssef Obama · Pyramids FC
46′SECOND HALF El Geish 1–2 Pyramids FC
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Pyramids FC · On: Mahmoud Saber · Off: Nadhir Benbouali
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Pyramids FC · On: Mostafa Fathi · Off: Mostafa Zico
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' El Geish · On: Komlavi Komi · Off: Mohamed Atef
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' El Geish · On: Mostafa Khawaga · Off: Islam Mohareb
68′We published Pyramids FC at 59%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
78′Mahmoud Saber scores for Pyramids FC on 78′. 1–2 · 0–6–93
79′Pyramids FC ahead on 77′ through Mahmoud Saber. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
79′⚽ GOAL · 77' El Geish 1–3 Pyramids FC · Mahmoud Saber
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Pyramids FC win: 59% at kick-off, over 99% now
80′We published Pyramids FC at 59%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
81′4 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' El Geish · On: Ragab Omran · Off: Ahmed Tarek
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Pyramids FC · On: Ahmed Atef · Off: Nasser Maher Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Pyramids FC · On: Mahmoud Zalaka · Off: Youssef Obama Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' El Geish · On: Mohamed Hany · Off: Karim Tarek
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Pyramids FC · On: Khaled Mohamed Awad · Off: Karim Hafez
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Khaled Abo Ziada · El Geish
90′Mahmoud Zalaka scores for Pyramids FC on 89′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' El Geish 1–4 Pyramids FC · Mahmoud Zalaka (penalty)
91′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Mohamed Fathallah · El Geish
FTFULL TIME El Geish 1–4 Pyramids FC
FTEl Geish 1–4 Pyramids FC · Pyramids FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pyramids FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: El Geish 13%, draw 28%, Pyramids FC 59%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on El Geish v Pyramids FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

El Geish win13%

Draw28%

Pyramids FC win59%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueCairo Military Academy Stadium

Line-ups

El Geish

4-3-3

Pyramids FC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

El Geish

Pyramids FC

7Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · the Egyptian Premier League

Last match: 16 Oct · CAF Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

El Geish

4-3-3

18 Emad El Sayed

8 Ahmed Abdel Rahman Zola

24 Z. Mohamed

4 Mohamed Fathallah

21 Khaled Abo Ziada

17 Walid Benbella

32 Yehia Mostafa

25 Ahmed Tarek

12 Islam Mohareb

11 Karim Tarek

30 Mohamed Atef

Coach · Gomaa Mashhour

Substitutes

6 · Khaled Stouhi

22 · Mostafa Khawaga

10 · Mohamed Hany

14 · Ahmed Wahid

13 · Komlavi Komi

7 · Ragab Omran

28 · I. Ouro-Agoro

1 · Omar Radwan

15 · Mahmoud Shabana

2 · Momen Mahmoud

Pyramids FC

4-2-3-1

1 Ahmed El Shenawy

15 M. Chibi

3 Mahmoud Marei

34 Eyad El Askalany

29 Karim Hafez

18 W. El Karti

14 Mohanad Lasheen

7 Youssef Obama

30 Mostafa Zico

22 Nasser Maher

13 A. Benbouali

Coach · R. Mokwena

Substitutes

9 · Ahmed Abdelkader

24 · Khaled Mohamed Awad

11 · Mostafa Fathi

16 · Z. Haithem

20 · Abdel Rahman Magdi

23 · Ahmed Atef Otta

8 · Mahmoud Saber

4 · Ahmed Samy

17 · Mahmoud Zalaka

Our number · pyramids fc winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

59% The market66%

Us59%

~~Market~~66%

We make Pyramids FC a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · El Geish v Pyramids FC~~0.64 – 1.61

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 18~~14 v 1

~~The market · Pyramids FC win~~66% · ours 59%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pyramids FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
El Geish win	13%	12%	+1
Draw	28%	23%	+5
Pyramids FC win	59%	66%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	39%	44%	−5
Both teams to score	39%	39%	0
Over 1.5 goals	67%	69%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	19%	24%	−5
El Geish or draw	41%	34%	+7
El Geish clean sheet	20%	–	–
Pyramids FC clean sheet	53%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.5%

0123450 12.2 15.5 13.5 7.3 3.0 1 5.4 12.2 8.5 4.6 2 2.2 3.5 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+El Geish down, Pyramids FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,527 Premier League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.5% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.56 goals a meeting; 7 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

El Geish at home: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Pyramids FC away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.64 goals for El Geish, 1.61 for Pyramids FC. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.56

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~PYR 4–0 ELG · PYR 2–1 ELG · ELG 2–5 PYR · PYR 0–0 ELG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug

EL GEISH

WWLDLL1–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–3

PYRAMIDS FC

WWWWWW3–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pyramids FC	6	+11	18
2	Al Ahly	6	+8	16
3	Zamalek SC	6	+5	13
4	Future FC	6	+4	13
5	Al Ittihad	6	+4	13
6	Ceramica Cleopatra	6	+4	12
7	El Mokawloon	7	+4	11
8	Smouha SC	7	0	10
9	National Bank of Egypt	6	0	9
10	Petrojet	6	0	8
11	Masr	6	−1	8
12	AL Masry	7	−2	8
13	Olympic El Qanah	6	0	7
14	El Geish	6	−3	7
15	Wadi Degla	6	−1	6
16	Asyut Petrol	6	−3	5
17	Enppi	7	−7	4
18	Abu Qair Semad	7	−8	4
19	El Gouna FC	7	−6	2
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	6	−9	1