Ceramica Cleopatra v Petrojet prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 20:30

Ceramica Cleopatra 2–0 Petrojet CERAMICA CLEOPATRA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ceramica Cleopatra win~~48%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.400

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.380

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ceramica Cleopatra win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ceramica Cleopatra was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–28–24
1′KICK-OFF Ceramica Cleopatra v Petrojet
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Mohamed El Maghraby · Ceramica Cleopatra
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Adham Hamed · Petrojet
31′We published Ceramica Cleopatra at 48%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Ceramica Cleopatra 1–0 Petrojet
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Ceramica Cleopatra win: 48% at kick-off, 77% now
32′Peter Gwargis scores for Ceramica Cleopatra on 30′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–17–7
33′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–7
36′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Ceramica Cleopatra · On: Ahmed Hany · Off: Fathy Mohamed
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Ceramica Cleopatra win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
45′HALF-TIME Ceramica Cleopatra 1–0 Petrojet
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ceramica Cleopatra · On: Samir El Eraki · Off: Marwan Otaka
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ceramica Cleopatra · On: Ayman Moka · Off: Mohamed Reda
46′SECOND HALF Ceramica Cleopatra 1–0 Petrojet
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Petrojet · On: Godwin Chika Okwara · Off: Islam Abdallah
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Petrojet · On: F. Kouablan · Off: Adham Hamed
55′We published Ceramica Cleopatra at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Petrojet · On: Abubakar Liadi · Off: Mohamed Ibrahim
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Petrojet · On: Karim El Deeb · Off: Badr Mousa
70′We published Ceramica Cleopatra at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Ceramica Cleopatra win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
79′We published Ceramica Cleopatra at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ceramica Cleopatra · On: Sodiq Ougola · Off: Peter Gwargis
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Ceramica Cleopatra · On: Mohamed El Sayed Shika · Off: Nejc Gradisar
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Hussein El Sayed · Ceramica Cleopatra
86′We published Ceramica Cleopatra at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Petrojet · On: Abdel Rahman Hamawy · Off: Mahmoud Shedid Kenawi
90′90′: Amr Al Sulaya on the scoresheet for Ceramica Cleopatra, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Ceramica Cleopatra win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
92′🟨 YELLOW · 83' F. Kouablan · Petrojet
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Godwin Chika Okwara · Petrojet
95′We published Ceramica Cleopatra at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Ceramica Cleopatra 2–0 Petrojet
FTFULL TIME Ceramica Cleopatra 2–0 Petrojet
FTCeramica Cleopatra 2–0 Petrojet · Ceramica Cleopatra win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ceramica Cleopatra are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ceramica Cleopatra 48%, draw 28%, Petrojet 24%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Ceramica Cleopatra v PetrojetBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Ceramica Cleopatra win48%

Draw28%

Petrojet win24%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueCairo International Stadium

Line-ups

Ceramica Cleopatra

4-2-3-1

Petrojet

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ceramica Cleopatra

Petrojet

9Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · the Egyptian Premier League

Last match: 13 Oct · the Egyptian Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ceramica Cleopatra	6	+4	12
11	Petrojet	6	0	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ceramica Cleopatra

4-2-3-1

23 M. Alaa

3 M. Fathy

66 Mohamed El Maghraby

31 Moaz Mosaad

27 Hussein Al Sayed

28 Amr Kalawa

17 Amr Al Sulaya

21 P. Gwargis

77 Mohamed Reda

29 Marwan Osman

9 N. Gradišar

Coach · Ali Maher

Substitutes

2 · Ahmed Hany

10 · Ahmed Belhadji

22 · Khalied Alnabrisi

15 · Samir El Eraki

32 · F. El Henawy

18 · Mohamed Bassam

11 · S. Ougola

19 · Ayman Moka

25 · Mohamed Shika

Petrojet

4-4-2

1 Omar Salah

4 Mahmoud Shedid Kenawi

25 Barakat Haggag

40 Youssef Abdel-Tawab

3 Islam Abdallah

11 Mohamed Ibrahim Dodo

17 Adham Hamed

8 Mohamed Osman

9 Badr Moussa

15 Ahmed Bahbah

19 Mostafa El Badry

Coach · Sayed Eid

Substitutes

22 · Omar Diyaa

7 · Karim El Deeb

12 · A. Hamawy

77 · Mohamed Khalifa

13 · F. M. Kouablan

21 · A. Liadi

30 · G. Okwara

29 · Ahmed Yassin

66 · Gamal Fawzi

Our number · ceramica cleopatra winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 20 Oct 03:50 · locked at kick-off

48% The market50%

Us48%

~~Market~~50%

We make Ceramica Cleopatra a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ceramica Cleopatra v Petrojet~~1.63 – 1.08

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 8~~6 v 11

~~The market · Ceramica Cleopatra win~~50% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ceramica Cleopatra win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ceramica Cleopatra win	48%	50%	−2
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Petrojet win	24%	22%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	45%	+6
Both teams to score	54%	49%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	77%	69%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	29%	26%	+3
Ceramica Cleopatra or draw	76%	78%	−2
Ceramica Cleopatra clean sheet	34%	–	–
Petrojet clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.4 5.7 4.0 1 9.3 13.1 6.3 2.3 2 8.7 9.3 5.0 3 4.8 5.1 2.7 4 2.0 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ceramica Cleopatra down, Petrojet across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,531 Premier League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.3% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ceramica Cleopatra at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Petrojet away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Ceramica Cleopatra, 1.08 for Petrojet. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 21 Oct 17:35. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~CER 2–1 PET · PET 1–0 CER · PET 0–2 CER · CER 4–1 PET

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug

CERAMICA CLEOPATRA

LWWWWL1–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–4

PETROJET

DLLWWD1–1 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pyramids FC	7	+14	21
2	Al Ahly	6	+8	16
3	Zamalek SC	7	+6	16
4	Al Ittihad	6	+4	13
5	Future FC	7	+3	13
6	Ceramica Cleopatra	6	+4	12
7	El Mokawloon	7	+4	11
8	Masr	7	0	11
9	National Bank of Egypt	7	0	10
10	Smouha SC	7	0	10
11	Petrojet	6	0	8
12	AL Masry	7	−2	8
13	Olympic El Qanah	6	0	7
14	Wadi Degla	7	−1	7
15	El Geish	7	−6	7
16	Asyut Petrol	7	−4	5
17	Enppi	7	−7	4
18	Abu Qair Semad	7	−8	4
19	El Gouna FC	7	−6	2
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	6	−9	1