Asyut Petrol v Zamalek SC prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 17:31

Asyut Petrol 0–1 Zamalek SC ZAMALEK SC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Zamalek SC win~~54%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.329

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.153

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zamalek SC win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Zamalek SC was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 17–29–53
1′KICK-OFF Asyut Petrol v Zamalek SC
17′A red card for Asyut Petrol on 15′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 18–32–50
17′🟥 RED CARD · 15' Ibrahim Abass · Asyut Petrol
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Ibrahim Abass · Asyut Petrol
26′We published Zamalek SC at 54%. Our model now makes it 83%. 0–1 · 4–13–83
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Asyut Petrol 0–1 Zamalek SC
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Zamalek SC win: 54% at kick-off, 83% now
27′Ahmed Sherif scores for Zamalek SC on 26′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–13–83
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Mostafa El Zenary · Zamalek SC
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 4–13–83
39′SUBSTITUTION · 39' Zamalek SC · On: Mohamed Farag · Off: Mahmoud Gehad
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Zamalek SC win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
45′HALF-TIME Asyut Petrol 0–1 Zamalek SC
46′SECOND HALF Asyut Petrol 0–1 Zamalek SC
52′We published Zamalek SC at 54%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Abdelrahman Medhat · Asyut Petrol
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Asyut Petrol · On: Fathy Gamal · Off: Abdel Rahman Kamal El Khamisi
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Zamalek SC · On: Hossam Ashraf · Off: Ahmed Sherif
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Zamalek SC · On: Abdallah El-Said · Off: Mohamed Ahmad Hamad Shehata
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Asyut Petrol · On: Abou Bakr Fawzi · Off: Ibrahim Abass
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Asyut Petrol · On: Mostafa Ahmed Abdel Hamid · Off: Abdel Rahman Mohamed Eissa
73′We published Zamalek SC at 54%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
74′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Asyut Petrol · On: Ahmed Khaled Hamed El Sayed · Off: Mohamed Eid
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Zamalek SC · On: Mohamed Ismail · Off: Omar Gaber
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Zamalek SC · On: Oday Dabbagh · Off: Ahmed Abdel Rahim
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Zamalek SC win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
84′We published Zamalek SC at 54%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–1 · 0–4–96
94′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Asyut Petrol · On: Karim Kamel · Off: Ahmed Khaled Hamed El Sayed
FTFULL TIME Asyut Petrol 0–1 Zamalek SC
FTAsyut Petrol 0–1 Zamalek SC · Zamalek SC win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zamalek SC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Asyut Petrol 17%, draw 29%, Zamalek SC 54%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Asyut Petrol v Zamalek SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Asyut Petrol win17%

Draw29%

Zamalek SC win54%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueAsyut University Stadium

Line-ups

Asyut Petrol

5-3-2

Zamalek SC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Asyut Petrol

Zamalek SC

7Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · the Egyptian Premier League

Last match: 16 Oct · CAF Champions League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Zamalek SC	6	+5	13
16	Asyut Petrol	6	−3	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Asyut Petrol

5-3-2

1 Amgad Youssef

30 Abdelrahman Medhat

6 Ahmed Magdy

20 A. Shokry

24 Mahmoud Alaa

7 Ahmed Younes

19 I. Abbas

18 Mohamed Hesha

26 A. R. Al Khamisi

35 C. C. Bodne

9 M. Eid

Coach · Ahmed Abdelmaksoud

Substitutes

5 · Mahmoud Alaa

21 · F. Abu Bakr

11 · Mostafa Sadafa

34 · K. Abdel Aal

8 · Fathy Gamal

13 · Ismail Ashraf

25 · A. Ahmed

32 · Karim Kamel

Zamalek SC

4-2-3-1

99 Mohamed Awad

4 Omar Gaber

28 Mahmoud Hamdi El Wensh

20 Mostafa El Zenary

13 Ahmed Abou El Fotouh

17 Mohamed Shehata

6 Mahmoud Gehad

11 Ahmed Esho

55 M. Hamad

31 Ahmed Sherif

81 Chico Banza

Coach · Motamed Gamal

Substitutes

19 · Abdalla El Said

98 · Oday Dabbagh

7 · Hossam Ashraf

58 · M. Farag

5 · Ahmed Hossam

37 · Al Mahdi Soliman

21 · A. Jafeli

24 · Mohamed Ismail

44 · Youssef Wael

Our number · zamalek sc winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

54% The market69%

Us54%

~~Market~~69%

We make Zamalek SC a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Asyut Petrol v Zamalek SC~~0.75 – 1.52

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 13~~16 v 3

~~The market · Zamalek SC win~~69% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zamalek SC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 66% to 69% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Asyut Petrol win	17%	10%	+7
Draw	29%	21%	+8
Zamalek SC win	54%	69%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	39%	46%	−7
Both teams to score	42%	38%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	67%	70%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	25%	−5
Asyut Petrol or draw	46%	31%	+15
Asyut Petrol clean sheet	23%	–	–
Zamalek SC clean sheet	48%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.1%

0123450 12.4 14.1 11.6 6.0 2.4 1 6.4 13.0 8.5 4.4 2 3.0 4.4 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Asyut Petrol down, Zamalek SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,527 Premier League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.5% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Asyut Petrol at home: 0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Zamalek SC away: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.75 goals for Asyut Petrol, 1.52 for Zamalek SC. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 20 Oct 14:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 21 Aug

ASYUT PETROL

DDLLLW1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–1

ZAMALEK SC

DWWWWL0–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pyramids FC	6	+11	18
2	Al Ahly	6	+8	16
3	Zamalek SC	6	+5	13
4	Future FC	6	+4	13
5	Al Ittihad	6	+4	13
6	Ceramica Cleopatra	6	+4	12
7	El Mokawloon	7	+4	11
8	Smouha SC	7	0	10
9	National Bank of Egypt	6	0	9
10	Petrojet	6	0	8
11	Masr	6	−1	8
12	AL Masry	7	−2	8
13	Olympic El Qanah	6	0	7
14	El Geish	6	−3	7
15	Wadi Degla	6	−1	6
16	Asyut Petrol	6	−3	5
17	Enppi	7	−7	4
18	Abu Qair Semad	7	−8	4
19	El Gouna FC	7	−6	2
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	6	−9	1