AL Masry v Abu Qair Semad prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:30

AL Masry 1–1 Abu Qair Semad AL MASRY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said AL Masry win~~48%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.755

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.973

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AL Masry win at 48%.
2′Much as we predicted: AL Masry was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–31–21
2′KICK-OFF AL Masry v Abu Qair Semad
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Hassan Ali · AL Masry
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' AL Masry win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was AL Masry win 40%)
45′HALF-TIME AL Masry 0–0 Abu Qair Semad
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AL Masry · On: Mohamed El Shamy · Off: Hassan Ali
46′We said AL Masry at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–45–19
46′SECOND HALF AL Masry 0–0 Abu Qair Semad
51′We said AL Masry at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–18
60′We said AL Masry at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' AL Masry win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
64′We said AL Masry at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–1 · 5–22–73
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' AL Masry · On: Abderrahim Deghmoum · Off: Abdellah Ziani
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Abu Qair Semad · On: Mohamed Ashraf · Off: Ahmed Khaled
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' AL Masry 0–1 Abu Qair Semad
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' AL Masry win: 48% at kick-off, 5% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Abu Qair Semad win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 58%)
65′64′: Omar Ibrahim on the scoresheet for Abu Qair Semad, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 5–21–74
66′We said AL Masry at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' AL Masry · On: Ali Sulieman · Off: Ahmed El Armouty
74′11 shots for AL Masry, 6 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 2–17–81
80′We said AL Masry at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–79–7
80′AL Masry level it on 79′ through Salah Mohsen. 1–1. 1–1 · 13–79–7
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' AL Masry 1–1 Abu Qair Semad
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' AL Masry win: 48% at kick-off, 13% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Abu Qair Semad win 86%)
81′AL Masry have had 12 attempts to 7 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 12–81–7
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Abu Qair Semad · On: Mohamed Camara · Off: Omar Ibrahim
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Abu Qair Semad · On: Mahmoud Abou-Gouda · Off: Ali Hussein
83′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–1 · 10–85–6
84′We said AL Masry at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–87–5
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' AL Masry win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Abu Qair Semad · On: Quaison Kofi Gideon · Off: Mostafa Abdelrehim
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Abu Qair Semad · On: Emad Hamdi · Off: Youssef Hamdi
98′SUBSTITUTION · 90+8' AL Masry · On: Amr Saadawy Salem Ismail · Off: Mohamed Shokry Corrected
99′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Haitham Shaaban · Abu Qair Semad
FTFULL TIME AL Masry 1–1 Abu Qair Semad
FTAL Masry 1–1 Abu Qair Semad · AL Masry win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AL Masry are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AL Masry 48%, draw 31%, Abu Qair Semad 21%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on AL Masry v Abu Qair SemadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

AL Masry win48%

Draw31%

Abu Qair Semad win21%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueAl Masry Club Stadium

Line-ups

AL Masry

4-2-3-1

Abu Qair Semad

4-5-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AL Masry

Abu Qair Semad

8Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · the Egyptian Premier League

Last match: 13 Oct · the Egyptian Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	AL Masry	6	−2	7
18	Abu Qair Semad	6	−8	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

AL Masry

4-2-3-1

26 Mohamed El Sayed

7 Karim El Eraki

2 B. El Mohamady

33 Mostafa Al Aash

3 Mohamed Shokry

14 Mahmoud Hamada

8 Hassan Ali

15 Ahmed El Armouty

32 Hussein Faisal

27 A. Ziani

9 Salah Mohsen

Coach · Ahmed Samy

Substitutes

1 · Essam Tharwat

17 · Youssef El Gohary

30 · A. Deghmoum

22 · Mostafa Abou El Khair

4 · Yassin El Mallah

11 · Mohamed El Shamy

13 · Amr El Saadawy

36 · Abdel Wahab Nader

21 · A. Sulieman

Abu Qair Semad

4-5-1

1 M. Genesh

6 M. Alaa

20 Ahmed Awad

4 M. Dabash

27 Ahmed Dahesh

11 Mostafa Rahim

14 R. Milad

30 Y. Hamdi

15 O. Ibrahim

22 Ahmed Khaled

29 Ali Hussein

Coach · Magdy Abdelaaty

Substitutes

8 · E. Hamdi

23 · F. Akem

7 · Mohamed Ashraf

38 · Mohamed Camara

24 · A. El Gazar

26 · Quaison Kofi Gideon

3 · Gaber Kamel

9 · Mahmoud Abou Gouda

25 · Mohamed Zakaria Shika

Our number · al masry winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 14 Oct 04:38 · locked at kick-off

48% The market62%

Us48%

~~Market~~62%

We make AL Masry a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AL Masry v Abu Qair Semad~~1.38 – 0.82

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 7 v 3~~12 v 18

~~The market · AL Masry win~~62% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AL Masry win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AL Masry win	48%	62%	−14
Draw	31%	24%	+7
Abu Qair Semad win	21%	14%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	38%	44%	−6
Both teams to score	43%	42%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	66%	69%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	18%	25%	−7
AL Masry or draw	79%	86%	−7
AL Masry clean sheet	45%	–	–
Abu Qair Semad clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 13.1 7.6 3.8 1 13.6 13.8 5.1 2 10.4 8.3 3.4 3 4.9 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AL Masry down, Abu Qair Semad across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,524 Premier League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AL Masry at home: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Abu Qair Semad away: 0.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for AL Masry, 0.82 for Abu Qair Semad. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ABU 1–1 ALM · ALM 1–0 ABU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 21 Aug

AL MASRY

WWLLLD1–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

ABU QAIR SEMAD

WLLLLL1–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pyramids FC	6	+11	18
2	Al Ahly	6	+8	16
3	Zamalek SC	6	+5	13
4	Future FC	6	+4	13
5	Al Ittihad	6	+4	13
6	Ceramica Cleopatra	6	+4	12
7	National Bank of Egypt	6	0	9
8	El Mokawloon	6	+1	8
9	Petrojet	6	0	8
10	Masr	6	−1	8
11	Olympic El Qanah	6	0	7
12	AL Masry	6	−2	7
13	Smouha SC	6	−2	7
14	El Geish	6	−3	7
15	Wadi Degla	6	−1	6
16	Asyut Petrol	6	−3	5
17	Enppi	6	−4	4
18	Abu Qair Semad	6	−8	3
19	El Gouna FC	6	−4	2
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	6	−9	1