Al Ittihad v El Gouna FC

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 37%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF Al Ittihad v El Gouna FC
3. 2′Little has changed for our model: the draw 37% before kick-off, 34% now. 0–0 · 34–34–32
4. 8′We said the draw at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 11–23–66
5. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Al Ittihad 0–1 El Gouna FC
6. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 23% now
7. 8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' El Gouna FC win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 23%)
8. 9′8′ and it is 0–1: El Gouna FC have scored. 0–1 · 11–23–67
9. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Al Ittihad 1–1 El Gouna FC · Mohamed Mido Mostafa
10. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 36% now
11. 12′Al Ittihad ahead on 10′ through Hossam Hassan. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–36–31
12. 12′⚽ GOAL · 10' Al Ittihad 1–1 El Gouna FC · Hossam Hassan
13. 16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was El Gouna FC win 30%)
14. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Al Ittihad 2–1 El Gouna FC · Hossam Hassan
15. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 47% now
16. 43′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 49%. 1–1 · 26–49–25
17. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Tolulope Samuel Ojo · El Gouna FC
18. 45′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 50%. 1–1 · 26–50–24
19. 45′HALF-TIME Al Ittihad 1–1 El Gouna FC
20. 46′SECOND HALF Al Ittihad 1–1 El Gouna FC
21. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' El Gouna FC · On: Omar El Gazar · Off: Ziad El Shayat Corrected
22. 52′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 55%. 1–1 · 23–55–22
23. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 57% now
24. 59′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 60%. 1–1 · 21–60–19
25. 60′Mohamed Toni scores for Al Ittihad on 60′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 81–17–3
26. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Al Ittihad 2–1 El Gouna FC · Hossam Hassan
27. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Al Ittihad 2–1 El Gouna FC · Mohamed Toni
28. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
29. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Al Ittihad win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 17%)
30. 61′We said the draw at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 2–1 · 81–16–2
31. 62′3 goals already, more than the 1.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 82–16–2
32. 63′El Gouna FC are down to ten from 62′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 82–16–2
33. 63′🟥 RED CARD · 62' Tolulope Samuel Ojo · El Gouna FC
34. 67′We said the draw at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–1 · 84–14–2
35. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Al Ittihad · On: Mahmoud Emad · Off: Mohamed Toni Corrected
36. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' El Gouna FC · On: Alaa Shaaban · Off: Ahmed Gamal Corrected
37. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' El Gouna FC · On: Mohamed Reda · Off: Michael Egbemba Corrected
38. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Al Ittihad · On: Ahmed Eid Nagy · Off: Joseph Arumala Corrected
39. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' El Gouna FC · On: Marwan Mohsen · Off: Abdel Gawad Taalab Corrected
40. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' El Gouna FC · On: marwan essam · Off: Alpha Turay Corrected
41. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Al Ittihad · On: John Okoye Ebuka · Off: Hossam Hassan Corrected
42. 78′We said the draw at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
43. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al Ittihad · On: Ahmed Hamdi · Off: Mohamed Fakhri Corrected
44. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al Ittihad · On: Youssry Wahid · Off: Nour Alaa Corrected
45. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
46. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' El Gouna FC · On: Mohamed Reda · Off: Michael Egbemba Corrected
47. 86′We said the draw at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
48. FTFULL TIME Al Ittihad 2–1 El Gouna FC
49. FTAl Ittihad 2–1 El Gouna FC · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.