Al Ittihad v El Geish prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al IttihadDrawEl Geish

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Ittihad 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Al Ittihad just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Ittihad 37%, draw 36%, El Geish 27%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Al Ittihad v El GeishBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Al Ittihad win37%

Draw36%

El Geish win27%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueBorg El Arab Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Ittihad

El Geish

9Days since last match10

Last match: 21 Oct · the Egyptian Premier League

Last match: 20 Oct · the Egyptian Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Al Ittihad	7	+3	13
15	El Geish	7	−6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al ittihad winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Al Ittihad a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Ittihad v El Geish~~1.00 – 0.81

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 26 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 13 v 7~~6 v 15

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Ittihad win	37%	–	–
Draw	36%	–	–
El Geish win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	27%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	56%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Al Ittihad or draw	73%	–	–
Al Ittihad clean sheet	45%	–	–
El Geish clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.2%

0123450 18.2 11.5 5.4 1 14.6 14.8 5.3 2 8.2 6.6 2.7 3 2.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Ittihad down, El Geish across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,534 Premier League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.6% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Ittihad at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). El Geish away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Al Ittihad, 0.81 for El Geish. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALI 1–0 ELG · ELG 0–1 ALI · ELG 1–2 ALI · ALI 0–1 ELG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 26 Aug

AL ITTIHAD

LWWWWL1–3 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–2

EL GEISH

WLDLLL3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pyramids FC	7	+14	21
2	Al Ahly	7	+8	17
3	Zamalek SC	7	+6	16
4	Ceramica Cleopatra	7	+6	15
5	Future FC	7	+3	13
6	Al Ittihad	7	+3	13
7	El Mokawloon	7	+4	11
8	Masr	7	0	11
9	National Bank of Egypt	7	0	10
10	Smouha SC	7	0	10
11	Olympic El Qanah	7	0	8
12	Petrojet	7	−2	8
13	AL Masry	7	−2	8
14	Wadi Degla	7	−1	7
15	El Geish	7	−6	7
16	Asyut Petrol	7	−4	5
17	Enppi	7	−7	4
18	Ghazl El Mehalla	7	−8	4
19	Abu Qair Semad	7	−8	4
20	El Gouna FC	7	−6	2