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Al Ahly v Olympic El Qanah

Al Ahly

3–3Full time

Olympic El Qanah

Premier League · WED 21 OCT · Cairo International Stadium

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 20:30

Al Ahly 3–3 Olympic El Qanah AL AHLY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Ahly win~~66%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.049

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.253

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Ahly win at 66%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al Ahly 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–23–12
1′KICK-OFF Al Ahly v Olympic El Qanah
19′We said Al Ahly at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–3
19′Al Ahly ahead on 18′ through Omar El Saeey. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–9–3
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Al Ahly 1–0 Olympic El Qanah
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Al Ahly win: 66% at kick-off, 87% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–3
33′Mahmoud Hany scores for Olympic El Qanah on 32′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 56–31–13
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Al Ahly 1–1 Olympic El Qanah · Mahmoud Hany
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Al Ahly win: 66% at kick-off, 56% now
38′We said Al Ahly at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 54–33–13
44′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 87–11–2
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Al Ahly 2–1 Olympic El Qanah
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Al Ahly win: 66% at kick-off, 87% now
45′HALF-TIME Al Ahly 2–1 Olympic El Qanah
46′SECOND HALF Al Ahly 2–1 Olympic El Qanah
47′43′: Ibrahim Samy puts it into the Olympic El Qanah net, and it is 2–1. 2–1 · 87–11–2
50′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Olympic El Qanah · On: Mohamed Hamdy Zaki · Off: mawuli wayo
54′We said Al Ahly at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 2–2 · 46–42–12
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Al Ahly 2–2 Olympic El Qanah
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Al Ahly win: 66% at kick-off, 46% now
55′Olympic El Qanah level it on 54′ through Hazem Abosena. 2–2. 2–2 · 45–43–12
56′We said Al Ahly at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 2–2 · 44–44–12
56′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 44–44–12
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Al Ahly win 44%)
62′We said Al Ahly at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 2–2 · 39–49–11
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Mahmoud Behiry · Olympic El Qanah
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Al Ahly win: 66% at kick-off, 36% now
68′We said Al Ahly at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 34–56–10
73′We said Al Ahly at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 2–2 · 28–63–9
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Al Ahly · On: Hussein El Shahat · Off: Emam Ashour
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Al Ahly · On: Mohamed Magdy Afsha · Off: Zizo Sayed
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Al Ahly win: 66% at kick-off, 26% now
77′We said Al Ahly at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 2–2 · 23–69–7
80′We said Al Ahly at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–75–6
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Olympic El Qanah · On: Momen Ahmed Rady · Off: Mahmoud Behiry
81′Mohamed Hamdy Zaki scores for Olympic El Qanah on 80′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 2–15–83
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Al Ahly 2–3 Olympic El Qanah · Mohamed Hamdy Zaki
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Al Ahly win: 66% at kick-off, 2% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Olympic El Qanah win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 75%)
82′We said Al Ahly at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–3 · 1–14–84
82′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 1–14–84
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Olympic El Qanah · On: Mohamed Hassan · Off: Hazem Abosena
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Al Ahly · On: Ali Mahmoud · Off: Monsef Bakrar
87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Al Ahly · On: S. Benjdida · Off: Omar El Saeey
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Olympic El Qanah · On: Mohamed Diab · Off: Mahmoud Hany
94′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 2–97–1
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Al Ahly 3–3 Olympic El Qanah
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Olympic El Qanah win 97%)
95′90′: Achraf Dari on the scoresheet for Al Ahly, making it 3–3. 3–3 · 2–97–1
FTFULL TIME Al Ahly 3–3 Olympic El Qanah
FTAl Ahly 3–3 Olympic El Qanah · Al Ahly win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Ahly are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Ahly 66%, draw 22%, Olympic El Qanah 12%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Al Ahly v Olympic El QanahBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Al Ahly win66%

Draw22%

Olympic El Qanah win12%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueCairo International Stadium

Line-ups

Al Ahly

4-2-3-1

Olympic El Qanah

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Ahly

Olympic El Qanah

4Days since last match10

Last match: 17 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

Last match: 11 Oct · the Egyptian Premier League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Al Ahly	6	+8	16
13	Olympic El Qanah	6	0	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Ahly

4-2-3-1

31 Mostafa Shobeir

30 Mohamed Hany

3 A. Dari

2 Yassin Marei

24 Tawfik Mohamed

15 Omar El Saeey

13 Marwan Attia

25 Zizo

22 Emam Ashour

17 A. Bencharki

10 M. Bakrar

Coach · L. Ammouta

Substitutes

5 · Hady Reyad

12 · Akram Tawfik

14 · Hussein El Shahat

1 · Mohamed El Shenawy

7 · Taher Mohamed

28 · Karim Fouad

21 · Ali Mahmoud

19 · Mohamed Magdi Kafsha

9 · S. Benjdida

Olympic El Qanah

4-2-3-1

16 Mohamed Shaaban

30 Ossama Fathy

5 Ibrahim Samy

19 Mohamed El Shebini

15 Mohab Samy

20 H. Ibrahim

8 Mahmoud Behiry

18 M. Wayo

33 Mohamed Sadek

10 M. Hany

9 Hazem Abou Sena

Coach · Abdelnaser Mohamed

Substitutes

25 · Mostafa Hamada

11 · Mohamed Hamdy Zaki

27 · Ahmed Ali

22 · Mohamed Hassan

24 · Mohamed Diab

13 · Mohamed Hozian

1 · Mostafa Mahmoud

80 · R. Najjarine

6 · Momen Rady

Our number · al ahly winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

66% The market75%

Us66%

~~Market~~75%

We make Al Ahly a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Ahly v Olympic El Qanah~~2.03 – 0.72

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 23 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 7~~2 v 13

~~The market · Al Ahly win~~75% · ours 66%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Ahly win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Ahly win	66%	75%	−9
Draw	22%	17%	+5
Olympic El Qanah win	12%	8%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	51%	55%	−4
Both teams to score	45%	41%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	30%	34%	−4
Al Ahly or draw	88%	92%	−4
Al Ahly clean sheet	49%	–	–
Olympic El Qanah clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.9%

0123450 8.1 3.6 1 11.8 10.5 3.4 2 12.9 9.1 3.3 3 8.7 6.0 2.2 4 4.6 3.1 5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Ahly down, Olympic El Qanah across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,531 Premier League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.3% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Al Ahly at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Olympic El Qanah away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Al Ahly, 0.72 for Olympic El Qanah. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 21 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 23 Aug

AL AHLY

WWWDWW3–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

OLYMPIC EL QANAH

WDDDLD2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pyramids FC	7	+14	21
2	Al Ahly	6	+8	16
3	Zamalek SC	7	+6	16
4	Al Ittihad	6	+4	13
5	Future FC	7	+3	13
6	Ceramica Cleopatra	6	+4	12
7	El Mokawloon	7	+4	11
8	Masr	7	0	11
9	National Bank of Egypt	7	0	10
10	Smouha SC	7	0	10
11	Petrojet	6	0	8
12	AL Masry	7	−2	8
13	Olympic El Qanah	6	0	7
14	Wadi Degla	7	−1	7
15	El Geish	7	−6	7
16	Asyut Petrol	7	−4	5
17	Enppi	7	−7	4
18	Abu Qair Semad	7	−8	4
19	El Gouna FC	7	−6	2
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	6	−9	1