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Abu Qair Semad v Asyut Petrol

Abu Qair Semad

1–2Full time

Asyut Petrol

Premier League · TUE 13 OCT · Borg El Arab Stadium

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:57

Abu Qair Semad 1–2 Asyut Petrol DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~35%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.742

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.872

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 35%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Abu Qair Semad 35% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–32–31
1′KICK-OFF Abu Qair Semad v Asyut Petrol
16′We said Abu Qair Semad at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Abu Qair Semad 1–0 Asyut Petrol
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 21% now
18′Abu Qair Semad find the net on 16′. 0–0. 0–0 · 34–37–29 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 37% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Abu Qair Semad win 33%)
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Abu Qair Semad 1–0 Asyut Petrol
32′Abu Qair Semad find the net on 31′. 0–0. 0–0 · 31–42–27 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 45% now
45′HALF-TIME Abu Qair Semad 0–0 Asyut Petrol
46′SECOND HALF Abu Qair Semad 0–0 Asyut Petrol
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Abu Qair Semad · On: Mohamed Ashraf · Off: Omar Ibrahim Corrected
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 56% now
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Abu Qair Semad · On: Mohamed Ashraf · Off: Omar Ibrahim Corrected
58′We said Abu Qair Semad at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–57–20 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Abu Qair Semad · On: Mahmoud Abou-Gouda · Off: Ahmed Khaled Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Abu Qair Semad · On: Mohamed Camara · Off: Favour Akem Corrected
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Abu Qair Semad 0–1 Asyut Petrol
67′We said Abu Qair Semad at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–1 · 2–16–82 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 16% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Asyut Petrol win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Abu Qair Semad 0–1 Asyut Petrol · Mohamed Eid
68′Asyut Petrol ahead on 66′ through Mohamed Eid. 0–1. 0–1 · 2–16–82 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Asyut Petrol · On: Mostafa Ahmed Abdel Hamid · Off: Abdel Rahman Kamal El Khamisi Corrected
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 14% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Abu Qair Semad · On: Ayman Abdelhamid El Gazar · Off: Mohamed Alaa Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Asyut Petrol · On: Fathy Gamal · Off: Mohamed Eid Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Asyut Petrol · On: Abou Bakr Fawzi · Off: Ibrahim Abass Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Asyut Petrol · On: Ahmed Magdy · Off: Mahmoud Alaa Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Asyut Petrol · On: Khaled Abdel Aal · Off: Abdel Rahman Mohamed Eissa Corrected
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Quaison Kofi Gideon · Abu Qair Semad
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Abu Qair Semad 0–2 Asyut Petrol · Mohamed Eid
85′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 0–2 · 0–0–100 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 0% now
85′⚽ GOAL · 83' Abu Qair Semad 0–2 Asyut Petrol · Fathy Gamal
87′Fathy Gamal scores for Asyut Petrol on 83′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
90′3 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–3–97
90′90′ and it is 1–2: Ali Hussein on the scoresheet for Abu Qair Semad. 1–2 · 0–3–97
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Abu Qair Semad 1–2 Asyut Petrol · Fathy Gamal
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Abu Qair Semad 1–2 Asyut Petrol · Ali Hussein
FTFULL TIME Abu Qair Semad 1–2 Asyut Petrol
FTAbu Qair Semad 1–2 Asyut Petrol · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

Abu Qair Semad win35%

Draw35%

Asyut Petrol win30%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 15:00

VenueBorg El Arab Stadium

Line-ups

Abu Qair Semad

Asyut Petrol

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Abu Qair Semad

Asyut Petrol

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Abu Qair Semad	5	−7	3
19	Asyut Petrol	5	−4	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Abu Qair Semad

Formation not confirmed

25 M. Shika

6 M. Alaa

20 A. Awad

4 M. Gomaa

27 A. Dahesh

11 M. Shehata

15 O. Ibrahim

14 R. Milad

23 F. Akem

29 A. Hussein

22 A. Khaled

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Genesh

3 · G. Kamel

24 · A. El Gazar

26 · G. Quaison

8 · E. Hamdi

7 · Ocha

30 · Y. Hamdi

9 · M. Abou Gouda

38 · M. Camara

Asyut Petrol

3-5-2

25 A. Ahmed

5 M. Alaa

20 A. Shokry

24 M. Abdel Aleim

30 A. Medhat

18 A. Keshkesh

19 I. Abbas

26 A. El Khamisi

7 A. Younes

9 M. Eid

35 C. C. Bodne

Coach · Ahmed Abdelmaksoud

Substitutes

23 · A. Gamal

6 · A. Ahmed

34 · K. Abdelaal

21 · B. F. Abu

32 · K. Kamel

13 · I. Ashraf

38 · J. Egagy

11 · M. Abdel Hamid

8 · F. Gamal

Our number · drawFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

35% The market32%

Us35%

~~Market~~32%

We make the draw a 35% chance. The market has it at 32%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 33% to 32% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Abu Qair Semad win	35%	48%	−13
Draw	35%	32%	+4
Asyut Petrol win	30%	20%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	29%	34%	−4
Both teams to score	38%	39%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	57%	58%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	13%	17%	−5
Abu Qair Semad or draw	70%	80%	−9
Abu Qair Semad clean sheet	42%	–	–
Asyut Petrol clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.6%

0123450 17.6 11.8 6.1 1 13.3 14.7 5.8 2 7.4 6.4 2.9 3 2.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Abu Qair Semad down, Asyut Petrol across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,520 Premier League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.1% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Abu Qair Semad at home: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Asyut Petrol away: 0.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Abu Qair Semad, 0.89 for Asyut Petrol. Most likely score 0–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 14:44. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Premier League since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Premier League

ABU QAIR SEMAD

WLLLL1–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2

ASYUT PETROL

DDLLL1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pyramids FC	6	+11	18
2	Al Ahly	6	+8	16
3	Zamalek SC	6	+5	13
4	Future FC	6	+4	13
5	Ceramica Cleopatra	6	+4	12
6	Al Ittihad	5	+3	10
7	El Mokawloon	6	+1	8
8	Masr	6	−1	8
9	Petrojet	5	0	7
10	Olympic El Qanah	6	0	7
11	El Geish	5	0	7
12	AL Masry	6	−2	7
13	Smouha SC	6	−2	7
14	National Bank of Egypt	5	−3	6
15	Wadi Degla	5	−1	5
16	Enppi	6	−4	4
17	Abu Qair Semad	5	−7	3
18	El Gouna FC	5	−3	2
19	Asyut Petrol	5	−4	2
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	6	−9	1