Universidad Catolica v Macara prediction · Liga Pro

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Universidad Catolica 0–1 Macara UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Universidad Catolica win~~54%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.963

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.954

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Universidad Catolica win at 54%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Universidad Catolica 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–24–22
3′Little has changed for our model: Universidad Catolica 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–24–22
44′Franco Posse scores for Macara on 34′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–27–57
45′Franco Posse scores for Macara on 34′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–27–58
51′49′ and it is 0–1: José Fajardo on the scoresheet for Universidad Catolica. 0–1 · 13–27–61
55′49′ and it is 0–1: José Fajardo on the scoresheet for Universidad Catolica. 0–1 · 11–26–63
76′We said Universidad Catolica at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–1 · 3–18–79
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Macara · On: Patricio Andrés Ramos Llerena · Off: augustin campana
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Universidad Catolica win: 54% at kick-off, 13% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Universidad Catolica win: 54% at kick-off, 3% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Universidad Catolica win: 54% at kick-off, 13% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Universidad Catolica win: 54% at kick-off, 3% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Universidad Catolica win: 54% at kick-off, 13% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Universidad Catolica win: 54% at kick-off, 3% now
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Azarias Londono · Universidad Catolica
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Universidad Catolica win: 54% at kick-off, 3% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Universidad Catolica win: 54% at kick-off, 13% now
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Macara · On: Luca Agustín Ferro · Off: Franco Posse
FTFULL TIME Universidad Catolica 0–1 Macara
FTUniversidad Catolica 0–1 Macara · Universidad Catolica win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Universidad Catolica win54%

Draw24%

Macara win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:30

VenueOlimpico Atahualpa

RefereePatricio Parrao

Line-ups

Universidad Catolica

4-2-3-1

Macara

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Universidad Catolica

Macara

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Macara	31	+9	54
3	Universidad Catolica	31	+23	51

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Universidad Catolica

4-2-3-1

12 J. Lara

29 G. Anangonó

33 L. Cangá

37 C. Medina

44 E. Valencia

8 D. Clavijo

5 J. Cacciabue

23 Alex Andrés Rodríguez Reascos

28 M. Díaz

30 E. Mejía

18 B. Palacios

Coach · D. Martínez

Substitutes

10 · F. Martínez

1 · Lucas Cueva Gordillo

7 · J. Fajardo

3 · Jose García

9 · A. Londoño

26 · Foad Eid

17 · R. Troya

19 · M. Sevillano

24 · Darwin Carlos Nazareno Arroyo

15 · L. Moreno

14 · Jhostin David Mina Herrera

32 · M. Alonso

Macara

4-2-3-1

1 R. Rodriguez

25 J. Bolaños

4 J. Jiménez

14 J. Marrufo

27 J. Mohor

52 B. Coello

16 J. Cazares

28 A. Campana

15 M. Tello

20 M. Viera

9 F. Posse

Coach · G. Sanguinetti

Substitutes

77 · J. Chalá

19 · P. Ramos

26 · M. Medranda

87 · J. Klinger

22 · L. Ferro

11 · Tono Espinoza

3 · Juan Espinoza

12 · D. Cuero

50 · C. Caicedo

18 · A. Rodriguez

13 · L. Ayala

Our number · universidad catolica winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

54% The market52%

Us54%

~~Market~~52%

We make Universidad Catolica a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · universidad catolica win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 55% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Universidad Catolica win	54%	52%	+2
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Macara win	22%	22%	0
Over 2.5 goals	52%	50%	+2
Both teams to score	53%	52%	0
Over 1.5 goals	76%	73%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	29%	+1
Universidad Catolica or draw	78%	78%	0
Universidad Catolica clean sheet	36%	–	–
Macara clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.8 6.1 3.3 1 10.7 11.4 5.7 2 9.6 9.6 4.9 3 5.6 5.6 2.9 4 2.5 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Universidad Catolica down, Macara across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,531 Liga Pro matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.9% of games this season, across 252 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.10 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Universidad Catolica at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Macara away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Universidad Catolica, 1.02 for Macara. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAC 1–1 UNI · UNI 4–0 MAC · MAC 1–4 UNI · UNI 1–0 MAC

Form · last six in Liga Pro

UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA

WDDWWL5–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2

MACARA

LWWLWW0–1 · 2–1 · 4–3 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente del Valle	31	+41	77
2	Macara	31	+9	54
3	Universidad Catolica	31	+23	51
4	Aucas	32	+3	50
5	LDU de Quito	31	+8	49
6	Libertad	32	+3	47
7	Barcelona SC	30	+7	44
8	Guayaquil City FC	32	−2	43
9	Leones del Norte	32	−4	40
10	Mushuc Runa SC	32	−4	39
11	Emelec	32	−11	39
12	Deportivo Cuenca	31	−12	37
13	Orense SC	31	−12	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	32	−15	33
15	Delfin SC	32	−11	32
16	Manta FC	32	−23	27