Tecnico Universitario v Mushuc Runa SC prediction · Liga Pro

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Tecnico UniversitarioDrawMushuc Runa SC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Tecnico Universitario 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tecnico Universitario are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tecnico Universitario 41%, draw 28%, Mushuc Runa SC 31%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Tecnico Universitario v Mushuc Runa SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Tecnico Universitario win41%

Draw28%

Mushuc Runa SC win31%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 20:30

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 4

VenueEstadio Bellavista

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tecnico Universitario

Mushuc Runa SC

10Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga Pro

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Pro

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Mushuc Runa SC	33	−4	40
15	Tecnico Universitario	33	−16	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tecnico universitario winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market34%

Us41%

~~Market~~34%

We make Tecnico Universitario a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tecnico Universitario v Mushuc Runa SC~~1.33 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 1 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 33 v 40~~15 v 12

~~The market · Tecnico Universitario win~~34% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tecnico Universitario win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tecnico Universitario win	41%	34%	+7
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Mushuc Runa SC win	31%	36%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	44%	42%	+2
Both teams to score	50%	49%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	66%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	23%	23%	0
Tecnico Universitario or draw	69%	64%	+5
Tecnico Universitario clean sheet	33%	–	–
Mushuc Runa SC clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.2 9.2 5.4 2.0 1 11.0 13.2 7.1 2.7 2 7.6 8.4 4.7 3 3.4 3.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tecnico Universitario down, Mushuc Runa SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,545 Liga Pro matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.0% of games this season, across 266 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tecnico Universitario at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mushuc Runa SC away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Tecnico Universitario, 1.12 for Mushuc Runa SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TEC 0–3 MUS · MUS 1–0 TEC · MUS 1–0 TEC · TEC 0–0 MUS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 1 Sept

TECNICO UNIVERSITARIO

LLWDLL0–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

MUSHUC RUNA SC

DDLDLD0–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Relegation Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Deportivo Cuenca	33	−11	41
12	Mushuc Runa SC	33	−4	40
13	Delfin SC	33	−9	35
14	Orense SC	33	−12	35
15	Tecnico Universitario	33	−16	33
16	Manta FC	33	−25	27