Orense SC v Deportivo Cuenca prediction · Liga Pro

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Orense SC 0–0 Deportivo Cuenca ORENSE SC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Orense SC win~~43%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.766

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.773

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Orense SC win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Orense SC 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–29
16′Little has changed for our model: Orense SC 43% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–32–28
53′We said Orense SC at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–48–22
73′We said Orense SC at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–68–14
81′We said Orense SC at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–0 · 11–81–8
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Orense SC win: 43% at kick-off, 18% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Orense SC win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Orense SC win: 43% at kick-off, 18% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Orense SC win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Orense SC win: 43% at kick-off, 18% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Orense SC win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Orense SC win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Orense SC win: 43% at kick-off, 18% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Orense SC win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Orense SC win: 43% at kick-off, 18% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Orense SC win: 43% at kick-off, 18% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Orense SC win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
94′We said Orense SC at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 0–0 · 0–100–0
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Orense SC win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Orense SC win: 43% at kick-off, 18% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Orense SC win: 43% at kick-off, 0% now
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 96' Orense SC win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 96' Orense SC win: 43% at kick-off, 0% now
97′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 97' Orense SC win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
97′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 97' Orense SC win: 43% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Orense SC 0–0 Deportivo Cuenca
FTOrense SC 0–0 Deportivo Cuenca · Orense SC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Orense SC win43%

Draw29%

Deportivo Cuenca win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:45

VenueEstadio 9 de Mayo

RefereeGabriel Ismael Gonzalez Cordero

Line-ups

Orense SC

3-4-3

Deportivo Cuenca

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Orense SC

Deportivo Cuenca

20Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Deportivo Cuenca	31	−12	37
13	Orense SC	31	−12	33

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Orense SC

3-4-3

12 R. Silva

4 M. Quiñonez

24 G. Achilier

3 Sixto Romario Mina Arroyo

31 P. Velasco

25 R. Jaramillo

14 E. Pluas

15 B. Caicedo

13 Á. Mena

11 A. Herrera

77 B. Viñán

Coach · J. Buch

Substitutes

26 · N. Molina

57 · S. Mairongo

22 · J. Ortiz

51 · C. Ortíz

2 · B. Quiñonez

21 · G. Rostagno

88 · J. Valencia

19 · Michael Alessandro Bermúdez Reyes

6 · S. Callegari

23 · Wilson Arturo Chuchuca Arreaga

53 · L. Garces

50 · E. Hernandez

Deportivo Cuenca

5-3-2

1 F. Ferrero

43 J. Ordoñez

23 E. Guevara

28 P. Boolsen

6 S. Postel

37 C. Arboleda

14 J. Chacón

30 M. Maccari

8 É. Vega

11 G. Rivero

19 Melvin Fabricio Díaz Canencia

Coach · A. Yllana

Substitutes

50 · Jostin Missael Caicedo Solis

53 · Yeltzin Hernán Erique Villigua

49 · David González

29 · M. Klimowicz

25 · Marcos Andrés López Cabrera

7 · Lucas Eduardo Mancinelli

16 · J. Mejia

12 · Ethan Gabriel Minda Humanante

3 · G. Nardelli

5 · David Alejandro Noboa Tello

18 · I. Piedra

88 · C. Benalcazar

Our number · orense sc winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

43% The market44%

Us43%

~~Market~~44%

We make Orense SC a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · orense sc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orense SC win	43%	44%	−1
Draw	29%	29%	0
Deportivo Cuenca win	28%	27%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	39%	44%	−5
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	66%	69%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	19%	25%	−6
Orense SC or draw	72%	73%	−1
Orense SC clean sheet	38%	–	–
Deportivo Cuenca clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.0 9.8 5.0 1 12.9 13.3 6.4 2.1 2 8.5 8.3 4.1 3 3.6 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orense SC down, Deportivo Cuenca across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,531 Liga Pro matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.9% of games this season, across 252 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 1.92 goals a meeting; 2 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orense SC at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Cuenca away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Orense SC, 0.98 for Deportivo Cuenca. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.92

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 12

~~Both scored~~6 of 12

~~Last meetings~~ORE 2–0 DEP · DEP 1–3 ORE · DEP 1–1 ORE · ORE 1–0 DEP

Form · last six in Liga Pro

ORENSE SC

LLLWLL0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 1–2

DEPORTIVO CUENCA

DLWLDD0–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente del Valle	31	+41	77
2	Macara	31	+9	54
3	Universidad Catolica	31	+23	51
4	Aucas	32	+3	50
5	LDU de Quito	31	+8	49
6	Libertad	32	+3	47
7	Barcelona SC	30	+7	44
8	Guayaquil City FC	32	−2	43
9	Leones del Norte	32	−4	40
10	Mushuc Runa SC	32	−4	39
11	Emelec	32	−11	39
12	Deportivo Cuenca	31	−12	37
13	Orense SC	31	−12	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	32	−15	33
15	Delfin SC	32	−11	32
16	Manta FC	32	−23	27