Orense SC v Delfin SC prediction · Liga Pro

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 22:33

Orense SC 4–0 Delfin SC ORENSE SC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Orense SC win~~49%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.397

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.404

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Orense SC win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Orense SC was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–29–23
1′KICK-OFF Orense SC v Delfin SC
9′We published Orense SC at 49%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Orense SC 1–0 Delfin SC
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Orense SC win: 49% at kick-off, 77% now
11′Orense SC find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–16–7
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Ober Medina · Delfin SC
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Orense SC win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
39′We published Orense SC at 49%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Orense SC 2–0 Delfin SC
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Orense SC win: 49% at kick-off, 96% now
42′An own goal by Delfin SC's Jefferson Arce on 40′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′HALF-TIME Orense SC 2–0 Delfin SC
45′SECOND HALF Orense SC 2–0 Delfin SC
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Delfin SC · On: Gerónimo Heredia · Off: Emerson Leao Espinoza Tenorio
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Erick Zuniga · Delfin SC
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Delfin SC · On: Kevin Ushina · Off: Jefferson Arce
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Sixto Mina · Orense SC
54′We published Orense SC at 49%. Our model now makes it 82%. 2–1 · 82–15–3
54′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 82–15–3
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Orense SC 2–1 Delfin SC
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Orense SC win: 49% at kick-off, 82% now
57′GOAL DISALLOWED · 57' Delfin SC
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Orense SC win: 49% at kick-off, 97% now
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Orense SC · On: Bryan Elián Viñán Rodríguez · Off: Valentín Burgoa
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Orense SC · On: J. Valencia · Off: Michael Alessandro Bermúdez Reyes
64′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Jonathan Morocho · Delfin SC
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Gonzalo Rostagno · Orense SC
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Orense SC win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Delfin SC · On: Luis Armando Castro Garzón · Off: Jonathan Morocho
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Delfin SC · On: Lucas Dante Cornejo · Off: Danny Luna
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Orense SC · On: B. Quiñonez · Off: Gabriel Achilier
77′We published Orense SC at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Orense SC 3–0 Delfin SC
78′78′: J. Valencia on the scoresheet for Orense SC, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Orense SC · On: Andrés Parrales · Off: Gonzalo Rostagno
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Orense SC · On: Erick Pluas · Off: W. Herrera
88′4 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Orense SC 4–0 Delfin SC
90′Orense SC ahead on 89′ through Andrés Parrales. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
92′Full time, 4–0. We called Orense SC at 49% — that one lands. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Orense SC 4–0 Delfin SC
FTOrense SC 4–0 Delfin SC · Orense SC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Orense SC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Orense SC 49%, draw 29%, Delfin SC 23%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Orense SC v Delfin SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Orense SC win49%

Draw29%

Delfin SC win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 20:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 4

VenueEstadio 9 de Mayo

RefereeAugusto Bergelio Aragon Bautista

Line-ups

Orense SC

4-2-3-1

Delfin SC

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Orense SC

Delfin SC

5Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Pro

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Pro

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Delfin SC	33	−9	35
14	Orense SC	33	−12	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Orense SC

4-2-3-1

12 R. Silva

31 P. Velasco

24 G. Achilier

3 Sixto Romario Mina Arroyo

15 B. Caicedo

21 G. Rostagno

25 R. Jaramillo

4 M. Quiñonez

19 Michael Alessandro Bermúdez Reyes

30 V. Burgoa

11 A. Herrera

Coach · J. Buch

Substitutes

26 · N. Molina

13 · Á. Mena

57 · S. Mairongo

51 · C. Ortíz

6 · S. Callegari

10 · M. Parrales

14 · E. Pluas

22 · J. Ortiz

2 · B. Quiñonez

45 · O. Quiñonez

88 · J. Valencia

77 · B. Viñán

Delfin SC

4-4-2

21 B. Heras

77 B. Hernández

32 A. Bedoya

5 O. Medina

14 E. Zúñiga

31 Jefferson Stalin Arce Mina

70 E. Espinoza

18 J. Morocho

50 T. Ozaeta

9 F. Ayunta

10 Danny Gabriel Luna Morán

Coach · Juan Carlos León

Substitutes

51 · C. Banguero

39 · Edison Caicedo Peralta Eber

16 · L. Castro

33 · A. Cisneros

23 · L. Cornejo

22 · J. Cárdenas

34 · G. Heredia

8 · K. Moreno

55 · M. Reyes

17 · E. Rubio

99 · Leao Tenorio

78 · K. Ushiña

Our number · orense sc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

49% The market48%

Us49%

~~Market~~48%

We make Orense SC a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Orense SC v Delfin SC~~1.37 – 0.84

~~Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 1 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 35 v 35~~14 v 13

~~The market · Orense SC win~~48% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Orense SC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orense SC win	49%	48%	+1
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Delfin SC win	23%	24%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	38%	44%	−6
Both teams to score	43%	49%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	65%	69%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	18%	24%	−6
Orense SC or draw	77%	76%	+1
Orense SC clean sheet	43%	–	–
Delfin SC clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.5%

0123450 11.5 8.8 3.9 1 14.5 13.0 5.3 2 10.2 8.5 3.6 3 4.7 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orense SC down, Delfin SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,543 Liga Pro matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.9% of games this season, across 264 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orense SC at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Delfin SC away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Orense SC, 0.84 for Delfin SC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEL 1–1 ORE · ORE 0–0 DEL · ORE 3–1 DEL · DEL 0–0 ORE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 1 Sept

ORENSE SC

LWLLDD0–1 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

DELFIN SC

WLDDWW1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 4–2

The table

2026 · Relegation Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Deportivo Cuenca	33	−11	41
12	Mushuc Runa SC	33	−4	40
13	Delfin SC	33	−9	35
14	Orense SC	33	−12	35
15	Tecnico Universitario	33	−16	33
16	Manta FC	33	−25	27

The competition's standings before kick-off.

Orense SC v Delfin SC

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Orense SC

Delfin SC

Rest & schedule

Orense SC

Delfin SC

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

Orense SC

Delfin SC

Match statistics

Line-ups

Orense SC

Delfin SC

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 1 Sept

The table