Mushuc Runa SC v Orense SC prediction · Liga Pro

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 00:00

Mushuc Runa SC 1–1 Orense SC MUSHUC RUNA SC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Mushuc Runa SC win~~46%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.819

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.872

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mushuc Runa SC win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mushuc Runa SC was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
1′KICK-OFF Mushuc Runa SC v Orense SC
4′We said Mushuc Runa SC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–23–55
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Mushuc Runa SC 0–1 Orense SC
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Mushuc Runa SC win: 46% at kick-off, 22% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Orense SC win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Mushuc Runa SC win 45%)
5′A goal for Orense SC on 5′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 22–23–55
15′We said Mushuc Runa SC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–56
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Mushuc Runa SC 1–1 Orense SC
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Mushuc Runa SC win: 46% at kick-off, 42% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Mushuc Runa SC win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Orense SC win 58%)
23′22′: Freddy Mina on the scoresheet for Mushuc Runa SC, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 42–32–26
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Juan Pablo Buch Pabón · Orense SC
42′SUBSTITUTION · 42' Mushuc Runa SC · On: Jefferson Caicedo · Off: Tomson Minda
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Mushuc Runa SC win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Mushuc Runa SC win 38%)
45′SECOND HALF Mushuc Runa SC 1–1 Orense SC
49′We said Mushuc Runa SC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–43–23
49′HALF-TIME Mushuc Runa SC 1–1 Orense SC
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Orense SC · On: B. Quiñonez · Off: Pedro Velasco
58′Mushuc Runa SC have had 10 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 30–49–20
59′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 30–50–20
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Mushuc Runa SC · On: Nazareno Bazán · Off: Renso Tufino Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Mushuc Runa SC · On: Bryan Corozo · Off: Arnaldo Zambrano Corrected
60′We said Mushuc Runa SC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–51–20
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Ronny Biojó · Mushuc Runa SC
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Mushuc Runa SC win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Orense SC · On: Wilson Arturo Chuchuca Arreaga · Off: Bryan Elián Viñán Rodríguez
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Rodrigo Formento · Mushuc Runa SC
71′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Rodrigo Formento · Mushuc Runa SC
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Mushuc Runa SC · On: Elian Caicedo · Off: Freddy Mina
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Mushuc Runa SC · On: Kevin Peralta · Off: Miguel Perea
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Orense SC · On: Luis Miguel Garcés Carrion · Off: W. Herrera
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Orense SC · On: J. Valencia · Off: Michael Alessandro Bermúdez Reyes
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Orense SC · On: Christian Alejandro Ortíz Calle · Off: Gonzalo Rostagno
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Mushuc Runa SC win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
80′We said Mushuc Runa SC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–77–10
81′We said Mushuc Runa SC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 1–1 · 12–79–9
84′We said Mushuc Runa SC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Mushuc Runa SC win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
91′We said Mushuc Runa SC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
95′Mushuc Runa SC have had 12 attempts to 7 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 2–97–1
FTFULL TIME Mushuc Runa SC 1–1 Orense SC
FTMushuc Runa SC 1–1 Orense SC · Mushuc Runa SC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mushuc Runa SC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mushuc Runa SC 46%, draw 27%, Orense SC 27%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Mushuc Runa SC v Orense SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Mushuc Runa SC win46%

Draw27%

Orense SC win27%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 21:30

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 3

VenueEstadio del Mushuc Runa Sporting Club

RefereeYerson Zambrano

Line-ups

Mushuc Runa SC

4-4-2

Orense SC

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mushuc Runa SC

Orense SC

10Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Pro

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Pro

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Mushuc Runa SC	32	−4	39
14	Orense SC	32	−12	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Mushuc Runa SC

4-4-2

25 R. Formento

99 Cristopher Adonis Angulo Caicedo

30 F. Carabalí

4 Ronny Alfonso Biojo Preciado

33 M. Hernández

7 T. Minda

5 Esteban Nicolás Dávila Alarcón

8 A. Zambrano

28 M. Perea

9 R. Tufino

10 F. Mina

Coach · P. Vélez

Substitutes

11 · N. Bazán

61 · J. Caicedo

14 · E. Caicedo

19 · B. Corozo

50 · J. Cusme

2 · J. Flor

18 · J. Gonzalez

52 · D. Merino

42 · W. Pabón

26 · K. Peralta

37 · J. Quiñones

53 · David Aidan Solís Aráuz

Orense SC

3-4-3

12 R. Silva

4 M. Quiñonez

24 G. Achilier

3 Sixto Romario Mina Arroyo

31 P. Velasco

21 G. Rostagno

25 R. Jaramillo

15 B. Caicedo

19 Michael Alessandro Bermúdez Reyes

11 A. Herrera

77 B. Viñán

Coach · J. Buch

Substitutes

6 · S. Callegari

23 · Wilson Arturo Chuchuca Arreaga

53 · L. Garces

74 · C. Barrio

59 · J. Vera

26 · N. Molina

22 · J. Ortiz

51 · C. Ortíz

14 · E. Pluas

2 · B. Quiñonez

88 · J. Valencia

Our number · mushuc runa sc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market53%

Us46%

~~Market~~53%

We make Mushuc Runa SC a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mushuc Runa SC v Orense SC~~1.46 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 39 v 34~~12 v 14

~~The market · Mushuc Runa SC win~~53% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mushuc Runa SC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mushuc Runa SC win	46%	53%	−7
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Orense SC win	27%	21%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	46%	48%	−2
Both teams to score	50%	50%	0
Over 1.5 goals	72%	71%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	28%	−3
Mushuc Runa SC or draw	73%	79%	−6
Mushuc Runa SC clean sheet	35%	–	–
Orense SC clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.5 8.2 4.5 1 11.4 12.7 6.5 2.3 2 8.5 9.0 4.8 3 4.2 4.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mushuc Runa SC down, Orense SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,541 Liga Pro matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.2% of games this season, across 262 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mushuc Runa SC at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Orense SC away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Mushuc Runa SC, 1.06 for Orense SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 21:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MUS 2–1 ORE · ORE 3–2 MUS · ORE 3–1 MUS · MUS 2–5 ORE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 28 Aug

MUSHUC RUNA SC

WDDLDL1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–3

ORENSE SC

LLWLLD1–2 · 0–1 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Relegation Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Deportivo Cuenca	33	−11	41
12	Mushuc Runa SC	32	−4	39
13	Delfin SC	33	−9	35
14	Orense SC	32	−12	34
15	Tecnico Universitario	33	−16	33
16	Manta FC	33	−25	27

The competition's standings before kick-off.

Mushuc Runa SC v Orense SC

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Mushuc Runa SC

Orense SC

Rest & schedule

Mushuc Runa SC

Orense SC

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

Mushuc Runa SC

Orense SC

Match statistics

Line-ups

Mushuc Runa SC

Orense SC

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 28 Aug

The table