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Manta FC v Tecnico Universitario

Manta FC

1–0Full time

Tecnico Universitario

Liga Pro · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Jocay

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:31

Manta FC 1–0 Tecnico Universitario MANTA FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Manta FC win~~42%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.507

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.494

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Manta FC win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Manta FC was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
1′KICK-OFF Manta FC v Tecnico Universitario
2′Much as we predicted: Manta FC was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Wagner Eriberto Caicedo Peralta · Tecnico Universitario
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Manta FC 1–0 Tecnico Universitario
42′We published Manta FC at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Manta FC win: 42% at kick-off, 75% now
42′⚽ GOAL · 40' Manta FC 1–0 Tecnico Universitario · Jostin Alman
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Manta FC win: 42% at kick-off, 42% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Manta FC win: 42% at kick-off, 75% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Manta FC win: 42% at kick-off, 42% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Manta FC win: 42% at kick-off, 42% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Manta FC win: 42% at kick-off, 75% now
45′SECOND HALF Manta FC 1–0 Tecnico Universitario
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Tecnico Universitario · On: Johan Bocanegra · Off: Luis Estupiñan
51′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Felix Alejandro Zambrano Santizaba · Manta FC
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Tecnico Universitario · On: Cesar Castano · Off: Adrian Cela
64′🟥 RED CARD · 64' Manta FC
64′🟥 RED CARD · 62' Mateo Ortiz · Manta FC
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Manta FC · On: Ángel Ledesma · Off: Jose Enrique Angulo Caicedo
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Manta FC · On: Glendys Calos Mina · Off: J. Vergés
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Jonathan Alexis Majao Aguayo · Tecnico Universitario
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Tecnico Universitario · On: Luis Cordova · Off: Carlos Cuero
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Tecnico Universitario · On: Anthony Castilo · Off: E. Mesa
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Juan Jimenez · Manta FC
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Manta FC · On: Jefferson Nazareno · Off: Jefferson Troya
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Manta FC · On: Juan Nazareno · Off: José Monaga
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Tecnico Universitario · On: Carlos Ronny Estupiñán García · Off: Jonathan Alexis Majao Aguayo
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Manta FC · On: M. Valencia · Off: Juan Jimenez
92′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Ángel Ledesma · Manta FC
FTFULL TIME Manta FC 1–0 Tecnico Universitario
FTManta FC 1–0 Tecnico Universitario · Manta FC win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Manta FC win42%

Draw29%

Tecnico Universitario win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 20:00

Venue · Estadio Jocay

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Manta FC

4-4-2

12 F. Zambrano

23 A. Medina

24 O. Moscarelli

21 M. Ortíz

25 J. Monaga

27 Jefferson Alberto Troya Vera

6 J. Jiménez

5 B. Ramírez

55 J. Vergés

17 José Enrique Angulo Caicedo

19 J. Alman

Coach · Eduardo Carvajal Burgos Javier

Substitutes

4 · J. Nazareno

70 · J. Nazareno

52 · J. Rialpe

8 · M. Valencia

9 · J. Blanco

11 · F. Asagidigbi

10 · R. Burbano

7 · Walter Leodán Chalá Vásquez

1 · W. Chávez

28 · Á. Ledesma

31 · G. Mina

14 · J. Mina

Tecnico Universitario

4-4-2

12 Ayrton Morales

23 E. Mesa

13 J. Anaya

5 S. Mena

79 C. Cuero

7 L. Estupiñán

33 J. Majao

29 A. Cela

25 B. Delgado

90 W. Caicedo

8 D. Armas

Coach · Ismael Blanco

Substitutes

30 · Luis Arce Caicedo Kener

67 · M. Carrasco

85 · Y. Arce

10 · J. Bocanegra

70 · C. Castaño

15 · F. Castilllo

19 · Anthony Castilo

4 · Luis Mario Cordova Mina

77 · C. Garcia

14 · B. Oña

1 · S. Razzeto

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Manta FC

4-4-2

12 F. Zambrano

23 A. Medina

24 O. Moscarelli

21 M. Ortíz

25 J. Monaga

27 Jefferson Alberto Troya Vera

6 J. Jiménez

5 B. Ramírez

55 J. Vergés

17 José Enrique Angulo Caicedo

19 J. Alman

Coach · Eduardo Carvajal Burgos Javier

Substitutes

4 · J. Nazareno

70 · J. Nazareno

52 · J. Rialpe

8 · M. Valencia

9 · J. Blanco

11 · F. Asagidigbi

10 · R. Burbano

7 · Walter Leodán Chalá Vásquez

1 · W. Chávez

28 · Á. Ledesma

31 · G. Mina

14 · J. Mina

Tecnico Universitario

4-4-2

12 Ayrton Morales

23 E. Mesa

13 J. Anaya

5 S. Mena

79 C. Cuero

7 L. Estupiñán

33 J. Majao

29 A. Cela

25 B. Delgado

90 W. Caicedo

8 D. Armas

Coach · Ismael Blanco

Substitutes

30 · Luis Arce Caicedo Kener

67 · M. Carrasco

85 · Y. Arce

10 · J. Bocanegra

70 · C. Castaño

15 · F. Castilllo

19 · Anthony Castilo

4 · Luis Mario Cordova Mina

77 · C. Garcia

14 · B. Oña

1 · S. Razzeto

Our number · manta fc winPublished 10 Oct 20:07

42% The market43%

Us42%

~~Market~~43%

We make Manta FC a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · manta fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 42% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Manta FC win	42%	43%	−1
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Tecnico Universitario win	29%	27%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	41%	39%	+1
Both teams to score	46%	46%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	67%	64%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	20%	0
Manta FC or draw	71%	73%	−2
Manta FC clean sheet	36%	–	–
Tecnico Universitario clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.5 9.8 5.3 1 12.3 13.4 6.6 2.3 2 8.1 8.3 4.2 3 3.5 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Manta FC down, Tecnico Universitario across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,528 Liga Pro matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.6% of games this season, across 249 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.38 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Manta FC at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Tecnico Universitario away: 0.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Manta FC, 1.03 for Tecnico Universitario. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 20:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~TEC 1–0 MAN · MAN 0–2 TEC · TEC 2–3 MAN · MAN 2–0 TEC

Form · last six in Liga Pro

MANTA FC

LWLLDW1–5 · 2–0 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

TECNICO UNIVERSITARIO

LWLLWD2–3 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente del Valle	30	+40	74
2	Macara	31	+9	54
3	Universidad Catolica	31	+23	51
4	Aucas	31	+4	50
5	LDU de Quito	31	+8	49
6	Libertad	32	+3	47
7	Barcelona SC	30	+7	44
8	Guayaquil City FC	31	−3	40
9	Leones del Norte	32	−4	40
10	Mushuc Runa SC	32	−4	39
11	Emelec	31	−10	39
12	Deportivo Cuenca	31	−12	37
13	Orense SC	31	−12	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	31	−14	33
15	Delfin SC	32	−11	32
16	Manta FC	31	−24	24